Elevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
พัก–พัก–พัก 98.0%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.9%
อื่นๆ <1%
$1,354,953 ปริมาณ
$1,354,953 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
2%
อื่นๆ
<1%
พัก–พัก–พัก 98.0%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.9%
อื่นๆ <1%
$1,354,953 ปริมาณ
$1,354,953 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
$155,584 ปริมาณ
98%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$157,129 ปริมาณ
2%
อื่นๆ
$296,899 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,354,953วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,354,953วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation readings, particularly the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East developments—combined with a resilient labor market featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause path for the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings at the prevailing 98% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% since April, consistent with FOMC communications signaling a need to hold policy restrictive longer amid sticky price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated economic projections at the June 16-17 meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities, though a sharp disinflation surprise would be required to meaningfully alter the current hold outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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