Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI (0.9% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year) and a resilient labor market adding 178,000 nonfarm payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes from the March 18 session revealed growing policymaker openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target, while the updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year. Fed speeches, including Vice Chair Jefferson's April 7 remarks on balanced but vulnerable employment, reinforce a hold. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนมิถุนายน?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนมิถุนายน?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 1.8%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$8,547,696 ปริมาณ
$8,547,696 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
5%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
2%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 93%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 5%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน 1.8%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$8,547,696 ปริมาณ
$8,547,696 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$2,453,553 ปริมาณ
1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,295,115 ปริมาณ
5%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$1,583,027 ปริมาณ
93%
ปรับขึ้น 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,733,439 ปริมาณ
2%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$1,482,603 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI (0.9% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year) and a resilient labor market adding 178,000 nonfarm payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes from the March 18 session revealed growing policymaker openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target, while the updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year. Fed speeches, including Vice Chair Jefferson's April 7 remarks on balanced but vulnerable employment, reinforce a hold. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,547,696วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI (0.9% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year) and a resilient labor market adding 178,000 nonfarm payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes from the March 18 session revealed growing policymaker openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target, while the updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year. Fed speeches, including Vice Chair Jefferson's April 7 remarks on balanced but vulnerable employment, reinforce a hold. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,547,696วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI (0.9% month-over-month, 3.3% year-over-year) and a resilient labor market adding 178,000 nonfarm payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Recent FOMC minutes from the March 18 session revealed growing policymaker openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation above the 2% target, while the updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year. Fed speeches, including Vice Chair Jefferson's April 7 remarks on balanced but vulnerable employment, reinforce a hold. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, potentially reviving cut odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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