Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023 and driven by energy price spikes—has anchored near-certain trader expectations for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and steady payroll gains, has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and emphasis on upside inflation risks in recent minutes. This produces market-implied odds exceeding 98% for holding rates steady, consistent with futures pricing and the current policy path. The May CPI release on June 10 and the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections represent the final data points that could realistically shift sentiment if they show materially faster disinflation than recent trends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJune 2026 FOMC Meeting: Markets Price 36% Chance of 25 bps Rate Cut
CME FedWatch data showed markets priced a 36% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the June meeting, with the base case being a hold at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about timing and magnitude of cuts.
June 2026 FOMC meeting approaches with 36% chance of 25 bps cut
Markets priced in approximately 36% probability of a 25 bps cut at the June meeting, with the next SEP meeting scheduled for June 16-17, setting expectations for potential rate action.
Powell hints at possible future cuts as inflation eases
A post‑meeting comment that the Fed may consider a cut later in the year briefly revived a small chance of a “25 bps increase” (i.e., a future cut), causing the residual 0 % price for that outcome to stay flat.
Fed minutes reveal majority of officials see possible rate hike if inflation remains elevated
No change rises to 97%1%
Minutes from the April meeting showed that many Fed officials favored removing easing bias language and considered that further policy firming might be necessary if inflation stays above 2%. Market pricing shifted towards a potential rate increase in late 2026 or early 2027, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.
Fed minutes reveal majority support for possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks
No change rises to 98%1%
Minutes from the April meeting showed that a majority of Fed officials considered that some policy firming might be necessary if inflation remains persistently above 2%. This indicated a cautious stance with openness to future rate increases, influencing market expectations for the June meeting.
Fed Minutes Show Growing Hawkish Sentiment Over Iran‑War Inflation
No change rises to 98%3%
May minutes revealed that a majority of officials now see the possibility of raising rates if inflation from the Iran war persists, re‑injecting uncertainty. The market’s confidence in a “No change” outcome softened, setting the stage for the final June decision.
Market reacts to cautious tone in FOMC meeting minutes ahead of June meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
The release of the FOMC meeting minutes highlighted internal divisions and a data-dependent approach, with officials wary of inflation risks and uncertain about immediate rate hikes. This reinforced market confidence in no change at the upcoming June meeting, reflected in the near 98% price for no change.
Jerome Powell's Final FOMC Press Conference
No change rises to 98%1%
Jerome Powell delivered his final FOMC press conference, marking the end of his tenure as Fed Chair, with the next meeting scheduled for June 16-17.
Powell's term ends as Fed prepares for June 2026 meeting
No change rises to 97%1%
Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. The June 2026 meeting will be the first under Warsh's leadership, with markets pricing a 65% probability of holding rates steady.
Investors increase bets on Fed rate hike later in 2026 after hotter inflation data
No change rises to 98%1%
Following hotter-than-expected inflation data, investors raised the probability of a Fed rate hike later in the year, complicating the outlook for June but reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no change at the upcoming meeting. This reflected uncertainty but did not shift the consensus away from a hold in June.
Jerome Powell's term ends as Fed prepares for June 2026 meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
Powell's term as Fed Chair ended on May 15, 2026, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. Markets priced a high probability of no change at the June meeting, reflecting continuity and cautious outlook amid leadership transition.
Fed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate
No change rises to 98%2%
The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing.
April CPI inflation data shows persistent inflation pressures
No change rises to 97%1%
The April Consumer Price Index released on May 13 revealed persistent inflation pressures, tempering expectations for a rate cut at the June meeting. This data reinforced the market's confidence in the Fed maintaining the current rate, reflected in the continued rise of the 'No change' outcome price.
US inflation rises to 3.8% in April amid ongoing energy price pressures
No change rises to 97%4%
Inflation in the US increased to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, driven by continued energy price increases linked to the Iran conflict. This persistent inflationary pressure contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely hold rates steady at the upcoming June meeting.
Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising Fed independence concerns
No change rises to 98%1%
The Supreme Court considered President Trump's effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as an attempt to influence Fed policy. The case heightened concerns about political interference but did not alter market expectations for the June rate decision.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since May 2023
No change rises to 97%4%
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for April 2026 showed a 0.6% monthly increase, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.8%, the highest in nearly three years. This inflation surge, driven by energy prices and shelter costs, heightened concerns about persistent inflation, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting rather than cut.
April CPI rises 0.6% MoM, 3.8% YoY – inflation stays hot
No change rises to 97%1%
April CPI came in hotter than expected (0.6% MoM, 3.8% YoY), reinforcing the view that inflation remains elevated. The data pushed market odds of a cut to near zero and boosted the “No change” price while pulling the “25 bps decrease” odds down.
Major brokerages scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 amid inflation risks
No change rises to 98%2%
Leading financial institutions like BofA and Goldman Sachs revised their forecasts, pushing back anticipated Fed rate cuts and suggesting the Fed would likely hold rates steady through 2026 due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market. This dampened market expectations for rate decreases at the June meeting.
Fed releases pre‑meeting statement emphasizing data‑driven approach
No change rises to 98%2%
The Fed’s statement ahead of the June meeting stressed that policy would be guided by economic data, not political pressure, nudging the market further toward a No‑change outcome.
Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady
No change rises to 98%2%
The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 98%2%
The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell related to the Fed building renovation, removing a major source of political uncertainty. This development reinforced market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy in June.
Inflation data steady, reinforcing Fed’s cautious stance on rate changes
No change rises to 97%1%
December inflation data showed prices holding steady above the Fed’s target, supporting the view that the Fed would maintain rates to ensure inflation progress, aligning with market expectations of no change in June.
Fed’s May meeting concludes with no rate change as inflation remains above target
No change rises to 98%2%
With inflation still above 2% and no clear labor‑market weakness, the Fed kept rates steady, cementing the No‑change outcome at near‑certainty.
Market Price Reaches 96% as June FOMC Decision Approaches
No change rises to 97%1%
As the June 2026 FOMC meeting approached, market prices remained high at 96%, reflecting continued expectations of no rate change. The market was focused on the upcoming decision.
Markets shrug off DOJ probe as Fed independence debate continues
No change rises to 98%2%
Despite ongoing DOJ investigations into Fed Chair Powell, markets remained confident in the Fed's independence and its economic-driven policy decisions. This sentiment contributed to the high market probability of no change in the June interest rate decision.
Fed signals likely to keep rates unchanged at June meeting amid mixed economic data
No change jumps to 98%5%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a cautious approach, emphasizing economic data and inflation trends rather than political pressures. This stance aligned with market pricing that overwhelmingly favored no change in the target federal funds rate in June 2026.
April jobs report shows steady employment growth ahead of June FOMC
No change jumps to 96%5%
The April jobs report released on May 2 indicated steady employment growth, supporting the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy. This data reduced market expectations for a rate cut in June, contributing to the decline in the probability of a 25 bps decrease and bolstering the 'No change' outcome price.
Fed subtly signals only rate cuts possible with 'additional' language
The Federal Reserve's policy statement used the word 'additional' to signal an easing bias, drawing objections from three Fed officials who dissented over the language.
Fed signals only rate cuts are likely going forward, causing internal dissent
No change rises to 98%3%
In early May 2026, the Fed's forward guidance suggested that only rate cuts are on the table, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic conditions. This caused some dissent among officials but did not shift market expectations away from no change at the June meeting.
April jobs report: payrolls +115k, unemployment 4.3%
No change rises to 97%1%
The May 1 jobs report showed non‑farm payrolls adding 115 000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, suggesting a still‑robust labor market. The strength reduced expectations of a rate cut, nudging the market further toward the “No change” outcome.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell due to lack of evidence
No change rises to 98%2%
The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell without charges, citing insufficient evidence. This resolution removed a major source of political uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy at the June meeting.
Powell Says He Will Remain Fed Governor After Chair Term Ends
No change rises to 98%1%
Powell announced he would remain a governor after his chair term ends, amid a DOJ investigation. The news reinforced the perception that policy continuity would persist, keeping “No change” near its peak (98 % on May 8).
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
The closure of the DOJ investigation removed a major source of political risk, solidifying expectations that the Fed would maintain its current stance.
Fed’s June meeting expected to hold rates steady as political pressure mounts
No change rises to 98%2%
Analysts cited growing political pressure from the White House and the Supreme Court case over Fed independence, leading the market to near‑certainly price in no change, with the No‑change contract reaching 98 % by early May.
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Unprecedented Four‑Member Dissent
No change rises to 96%3%
The April meeting again resulted in a hold, but four members dissented – the highest dissent since 1992 – signalling growing uncertainty. The market’s “No change” probability rose from 93 % on Apr 22 to 96 % on Apr 30.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5‑3.75 % in April 2026; 4 officials dissent
No change jumps to 98%11%
At the April meeting, the Fed again held rates at 3.50‑3.75 % for a third straight time. The decision was notably split 8‑4, the most dissent since 1992, with four members favouring a cut. The news of a highly divided Fed and the impending chair transition pushed the “No change” price to its peak of 98 % by early May.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with divided dissent
No change jumps to 97%7%
In the April 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The statement noted solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to rising energy prices. The vote was split with dissenters favoring a 25 basis point cut. This decision and cautious language increased market confidence in a no-change outcome for the upcoming June meeting.
Fed minutes suggest hawkish stance, lowering chances of rate cuts by June
No change rises to 93%4%
The April 28-29 meeting minutes showed officials favoring removal of easing bias and readiness for hikes if inflation persists, decreasing market odds of a June rate cut and supporting no change pricing.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid internal dissent and leadership transition
No change rises to 96%3%
In Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed chair, the FOMC kept rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenters opposing the decision or the policy statement language. The Fed cited inflation trends, geopolitical risks, and economic resilience as reasons for the pause. Powell announced he would remain on the Board of Governors after his chair term ends, amid ongoing investigations.
FOMC Maintains Rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Final Powell Meeting Before June Decision
No change rises to 96%2%
The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This was Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair.
Federal Reserve votes 8-4 to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 bps cut, indicating continued policy uncertainty.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
No change rises to 95%2%
In April 2026, the Fed again held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to energy prices from Middle East tensions. Some dissenters preferred a rate cut, but the committee maintained a cautious stance, supporting market pricing of no change for June.
Fed Votes 8‑4 to Hold Rates at April 29 2026 Meeting
No change surges to 90%28%
During the April 29 meeting the Fed voted 8‑4 to hold rates, with dissent from Stephen Miran favouring a cut. The market’s “No change” probability surged to 90 %+, pushing the price to 90 % on April 2 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Powell's final meeting as Chair
No change surges to 91%28%
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with a divided committee vote of 8-4. This meeting was notable as Jerome Powell's final as Chair, with Kevin Warsh set to take over in May. The statement and press conference signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June and contributing to the sharp rise in the 'No change' outcome price.
Fed holds rates steady again as leadership transition looms
No change rises to 98%4%
The April 2026 meeting again left rates unchanged, but the dissent among officials and the pending chair transition kept the market’s “no‑change” confidence extremely high.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady for Third Consecutive Meeting
No change rises to 96%3%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, solidifying expectations that rates would remain unchanged through the June meeting.
FOMC Meeting: Economic Activity Expanding at Solid Pace
No change rises to 97%4%
The Fed's April meeting indicated recent indicators suggested economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, with job market conditions being a key focus.
Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in final Powell meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
The Federal Reserve voted 8-4 to hold its benchmark fed funds rate steady, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change as it weighs persistent inflation risks against slowing growth.
Fed Holds Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75%
No change surges to 97%40%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25bp cut.
FOMC Meeting Statement Released with Rate Hold Decision
No change surges to 97%40%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC policy statement confirmed the federal funds rate would remain at 3.50%-3.75%, with the most divided vote in over three decades, setting the stage for market expectations of a likely hold in June.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April Meeting
No change rises to 93%3%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with only minor changes to the policy statement.
Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid political pressure
No change jumps to 96%8%
The DOJ’s criminal probe into Chair Powell heightened political tension, leading markets to anticipate that the Fed would avoid any rate moves to preserve its independence, further boosting the "No change" outcome.
Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court arguments on Cook case
No change rises to 96%3%
Powell’s presence at the Supreme Court underscored the Fed’s commitment to independence, further cementing market expectations of a steady rate decision.
Fed reiterates pause on rate adjustments after April meeting
No change rises to 98%2%
Fed’s post‑meeting statement reiterated a pause on rate adjustments, cementing the “No change” outcome as the market’s near‑certain view.
Fed’s Kevin Warsh nomination cleared by Senate committee
No change rises to 96%2%
With the investigation dropped, the Senate moved forward on Warsh’s confirmation, suggesting continuity in the Fed’s policy stance and bolstering the No‑change bet.
DOJ drops criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 96%2%
The DOJ closed its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, clearing the path for Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh. The removal of this political drag reduced perceived risk of a surprise policy shift, reinforcing market confidence in a rate‑hold and contributing to the final push of the “No change” price to 98 %.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 96%5%
The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, keeping markets wary of a potential rate‑cut push and sustaining the no‑change stance.
DOJ prosecutors attempt to access Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change rises to 96%3%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into the renovation project. Despite the legal scrutiny, the Fed maintained its stance on rate decisions based on economic conditions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change rises to 93%3%
The nomination signaled potential for a more dovish chair, but uncertainty over confirmation kept markets favoring the status‑quo, further boosting No‑change.
Inflation remains above target, supporting Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts
No change rises to 96%3%
Data showed inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the case for further rate cuts despite a slowing labor market. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming June meeting.
Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns
No change rises to 95%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision.
Inflation remains elevated as consumer spending stays strong
No change rises to 95%2%
Data showed that inflation remained stubbornly above target while consumer spending continued at a healthy pace, signaling a solid economy. This economic backdrop reduced the likelihood of a rate cut and supported market pricing for no change in the Fed's June decision.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair
25 bps increase jumps to 30%5%
The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 94%1%
The Justice Department dropped its criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political uncertainty and clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation. This development reinforced market confidence in Fed independence and the likelihood of no rate change.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic data and political tensions
No change rises to 93%2%
Ahead of the June meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady, focusing on economic data despite ongoing political and legal challenges. This expectation drove the market price for no change to near certainty.
US Consumer Price Index shows 3.3% annual inflation in March 2026
No change rises to 90%4%
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.9% monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index for March, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%. The inflation spike was partly attributed to higher energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach to rate changes.
Justice Department ends criminal probe into Powell
No change rises to 94%3%
The DOJ’s decision to drop the investigation removed a major source of political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before June.
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions on rate policy amid cautious outlook
No change surges to 85%20%
Minutes from the Fed's December 2025 meeting showed significant dissent and finely balanced decisions on rate policy, indicating ongoing internal debate. This reinforced market expectations of a cautious approach with limited rate changes in 2026, supporting the high probability of no change at the June meeting.
Fed’s April meeting ends with unanimous decision to hold rates
No change surges to 90%27%
A consensus to keep the target range unchanged eliminated any remaining upside for rate‑cut bets, driving the No‑change price toward its peak.
Inflation data shows prices tick up, supporting Fed’s cautious stance
No change rises to 89%2%
November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices and solid consumer spending, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data suggested the Fed would be less likely to cut rates soon, supporting the market's no change pricing.
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case
No change jumps to 93%8%
Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his commitment to defending Fed independence amid political challenges. This reassured markets that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and economic pressures
No change jumps to 92%7%
Ahead of the April meeting, analysts and Fed officials signaled a likely pause in rate changes, focusing on economic data rather than political pressures, which supported the market’s strong pricing for no change in June.
Inflation remains stubbornly elevated in December amid DOJ probe into Powell
No change rises to 94%1%
December inflation data showed prices steady at 2.7% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. The DOJ's criminal probe into Powell heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, but markets continued to price in no rate change for June.
Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady
No change surges to 62%16%
Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome.
Fed holds rates steady at March meeting
No change jumps to 98%12%
The Fed’s March 16‑17 decision to hold rates steady confirmed market expectations, pushing the “No change” price to 98 % and collapsing odds of any move.
Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts
No change jumps to 96%6%
March minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants still see inflation as too high, causing the market to further consolidate on the No‑change outcome, moving its price from 90 % to 96 %.
Oil price surge from Iran war forces Fed to reassess inflation outlook
No change surges to 85%24%
A sharp 35 % rise in Brent crude after the Iran conflict (reported March 19) heightened inflation worries. The Fed’s March statement referenced the oil shock, dampening expectations of near‑term cuts and helping keep the market’s “No change” probability high.
Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged Due to Persistent Inflation
No change surges to 85%26%
The FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting, citing elevated inflation and weakening jobs reports.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change surges to 86%22%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some openness to future cuts if inflation declines. This solidified market expectations for no change in June, reflected in a price jump for the 'No change' outcome.
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Fuels Oil‑Price Shock and Higher Inflation
No change surges to 84%19%
At the March meeting the Fed held rates steady while citing the Iran war‑driven oil shock that pushed PPI up 0.7 % in February. The heightened inflation risk boosted confidence in a hold, moving “No change” from 65 % on Mar 6 to 84 % on Mar 19.
Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court argument supporting Fed independence
No change surges to 86%23%
Jerome Powell attended the Supreme Court hearing on the Lisa Cook firing case, publicly supporting Fed independence amid political pressure. This reinforced market confidence that the Fed would act based on economic data, not politics, supporting the no change outcome.
Governor Stephen Miran Calls for a 25‑Basis‑Point Rate Cut
No change drops to 1%6%
Miran publicly called for a 25‑bps cut during the March meeting. His dissent was noted in the official FOMC statement and in the implementation note, but the vote remained 11‑1 to hold. The dissent kept the “25 bps decrease” price low (≈1 %).
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% as Powell's Final Meeting Approaches
No change rises to 89%4%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This decision marked Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair.
FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty
No change surges to 87%27%
The March 17-18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, reinforcing market expectations for a hold in June. Persistent inflation risks and a divided committee underscored a cautious policy stance.
FOMC releases Summary of Economic Projections projecting one rate cut later in 2026
No change surges to 63%15%
The March 2026 SEP projected one rate cut later in the year, which initially raised market expectations for easing. However, the overall cautious tone and mixed economic data limited enthusiasm for significant rate changes, keeping no change as the dominant market view.
Fed Holds Rate Steady as Oil War Fuels Inflation Concerns
No change surges to 84%20%
At the March meeting the FOMC again voted 11‑1 to hold the rate at 3.50‑3.75 % amid a war‑driven oil price spike and sticky inflation, confirming the market’s expectation of no change and driving the price of the “No change” contract to near‑full confidence.
Supreme Court hears arguments on Lisa Cook firing case
No change jumps to 91%5%
The high‑court hearing on whether Trump can fire Governor Cook added uncertainty about the Fed’s composition, leading markets to favor a status‑quo rate decision.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks
No change rises to 63%4%
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting, balancing inflation concerns and the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. The decision was widely expected, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. The Fed signaled continued data monitoring before any rate adjustments.
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
No change jumps to 61%13%
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid higher-than-expected inflation, a softening labor market, and uncertainty from the Iran war. The decision was widely expected, with a dissenting vote favoring a rate cut. The Fed signaled one rate cut likely later in 2026 but maintained a cautious stance.
Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Hints at Future Cut in March 2026
No change plunges to 31%17%
At the March 18 meeting the Fed again left the rate unchanged, but the Summary of Economic Projections signaled a possible 25 bp cut later in the year. This lifted the “25 bps decrease” price briefly before it fell back, reflecting the market’s mixed expectations.
Fed holds rates steady in March 2026, cites elevated uncertainty and Iran war
No change surges to 85%54%
The March meeting again left rates unchanged at 3.50‑3.75 % (11‑1 vote). The statement highlighted “elevated uncertainty” and a possible impact from the Iran war. Market participants revised expectations for future cuts, causing the “No change” price to jump from the low‑30s in early February to a peak of 85 % on March 20.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and Iran war uncertainty
No change rises to 53%3%
At its March 18, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty from the ongoing Iran conflict. The decision was supported by most officials, with one dissenting vote for a rate cut. The Fed emphasized a cautious approach given the complex economic and geopolitical environment.
FOMC keeps rates steady amid inflation and employment uncertainty
No change surges to 57%19%
In March 2026, the FOMC again held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation and mixed employment data. The statement noted inflation forecasts were revised up and economic risks from the Middle East conflict were uncertain, which contributed to the decision to pause rate changes and maintain a cautious stance.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
No change surges to 85%24%
At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, reflecting persistent inflation risks and economic uncertainty. This reinforced market expectations for no rate change in the near term, including the upcoming June meeting.
Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%
No change surges to 97%40%
The FOMC voted 8-4 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, with the median policymaker expecting a 25 bps cut by year-end, signaling a dovish stance despite persistent inflation.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed chair Powell
No change jumps to 98%12%
The DOJ’s criminal probe into Powell was dropped after a judge found no evidence of wrongdoing. The resolution removed a major source of political risk, causing the market’s final swing to near‑certainty of “No change.”
FOMC keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious economic outlook
No change surges to 63%15%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth. This decision supported the market's growing confidence in a no-change scenario for the upcoming June meeting, as reflected in the rising price for the 'No change' outcome.
FOMC Holds Rates Unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%
No change jumps to 93%8%
The Fed maintained its federal funds rate target range unchanged, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in the near term including the upcoming June meeting.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March Meeting
No change rises to 88%3%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with a slightly hawkish sentiment, with three participants voting against maintaining an easing bias.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political interference
No change jumps to 63%8%
Powell’s public defense of the Fed’s independence reassured markets that policy would remain data‑driven, reinforcing expectations of no further change.
Iran‑Israel Conflict Sends Brent Crude Above $104, Raising Inflation Risks
No change jumps to 78%8%
The escalation of the Iran‑Israel conflict in late February pushed Brent crude above $104, a factor highlighted in the Fed’s March statement and cited by analysts as a reason to keep rates unchanged. The market’s “No change” odds jumped sharply after the oil‑price shock.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressures
No change rises to 98%2%
Analysts highlighted that recent DOJ subpoenas and the Cook case would likely lead the Fed to hold rates steady at its March meeting, reinforcing the market’s belief that the June meeting would follow suit.
Central bankers issue statement backing Fed independence amid Trump‑Powell clash
No change jumps to 55%13%
Nine major central banks publicly supported Powell, reducing market fears of a politically‑driven rate cut and bolstering the no‑change odds.
Republican senators defend Fed Chair Powell amid Trump administration pressure
No change surges to 85%25%
Several Republican senators publicly supported Fed Chair Powell against the Trump administration's attempts to pressure the Fed, reinforcing the Fed's independence. This political backing helped stabilize market expectations around no rate change.
Fed minutes reveal divided views but no immediate rate cuts planned
No change jumps to 59%6%
Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed a split among officials on future rate cuts, with most wanting more inflation progress before cutting rates. This underscored a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Global oil prices surge amid escalating US-Israel war with Iran
No change jumps to 47%7%
The escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran led to a sharp spike in global oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $120 per barrel. This supply disruption heightened inflation concerns globally, influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.
Fed minutes show split over future rate cuts after strong inflation data
No change surges to 86%26%
Released minutes revealed a deep division among Fed officials, with many favoring a hold. The market interpreted the split as a signal that the June meeting would likely result in no change.
Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting
No change jumps to 98%6%
A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political turmoil
No change jumps to 59%12%
Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady, citing the ongoing DOJ probe and Supreme Court case as reasons the committee would avoid a politically risky cut.
Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts, signaling economic caution
No change surges to 86%22%
December jobs report showed slower hiring despite prior Fed rate cuts, indicating economic weakness and complicating Fed's dual mandate. This data supported market expectations for no rate change in June as the Fed remained cautious about further cuts.
Fed signals hold at March meeting after mixed data
No change surges to 86%23%
Following a mixed batch of inflation and employment reports, Fed officials indicated no urgency to adjust rates, reinforcing market expectations of a hold and pushing the "No change" price toward its peak.
Fed’s Jan‑27‑28 meeting minutes show split vote on keeping rates steady
No change jumps to 55%12%
The minutes revealed a 10‑2 vote to hold rates, underscoring strong resistance to further cuts and pushing the No‑change price higher.
Federal prosecutors seek access to Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change jumps to 63%7%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Federal Reserve's building construction site related to the $2.5 billion renovation under investigation. This reinforced political tensions around the Fed and its chair, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately did not shift expectations away from no rate change.
Fed signals neutral stance ahead of March meeting
No change surges to 86%18%
Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed reaffirmed a neutral stance, which caused the market’s “No change” price to climb toward 86 %.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, raising political uncertainty
No change rises to 60%1%
President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell introduced uncertainty about future Fed policy, but Warsh’s reputation for intellectual rigor tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts, keeping no change as the favored outcome.
Fed minutes show December rate cut was a close call, highlighting committee divisions
No change surges to 60%16%
Minutes from the December Fed meeting revealed significant dissent and uncertainty among officials about rate cuts versus holding steady, reflecting a cautious stance that supported market expectations of no change in June.
Iran‑Hormuz conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation worries
No change jumps to 60%13%
The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted energy prices, prompting analysts to expect the Fed to stay cautious and keep rates unchanged, pushing the No‑change price higher.
U.S. and Israel attack Iran, sparking oil price surge
No change drops to 42%5%
The conflict raised global oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady rather than cut them.
Iran‑Israel conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation concerns
No change jumps to 64%13%
The outbreak of war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher, prompting the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance and reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in June.
Iran war escalates, pushing energy prices higher and fueling inflation concerns
No change jumps to 46%9%
The conflict involving the US and Iran led to a shutdown of the Gulf of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, causing energy prices to surge. This geopolitical event heightened inflation risks, making the Fed cautious about cutting rates despite economic growth, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change.
Treasury yields fall after Fed pauses cuts
No change rises to 51%4%
A dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield after the Fed announced a pause in rate cuts lowered long‑term borrowing costs, nudging the market toward the No‑change outcome.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change rises to 96%4%
Bessent’s push for a rule requiring regional presidents to live in their districts was seen as an effort to increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a politically constrained, unchanged rate policy.
Powell says Fed will wait before any further rate cuts
No change drops to 38%6%
Powell reiterated that the Fed would “wait and see” on further cuts after three consecutive quarter‑point reductions, reinforcing expectations of a steady rate and supporting the “No change” outcome.
Iran war spikes oil prices, raising inflation fears
No change surges to 63%15%
A sudden escalation in the Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, prompting concerns that inflation could stay elevated and that the Fed would likely keep rates unchanged to avoid fueling price pressures.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change dips to 46%2%
The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some support for cuts if inflation declines. This cautious stance supported market pricing of no change in June.
Fed officials signal willingness to keep rates steady amid stubborn inflation
No change jumps to 90%5%
A statement from the Fed after its February meeting emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing expectations of no change and pushing the No‑change price from 85 % to 90 %.
Fed minutes signal need for more inflation progress before another cut
No change jumps to 47%10%
Minutes from the February meeting emphasized that most officials wanted further inflation decline, reducing the probability of a cut and reinforcing the No‑change outcome.
Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change jumps to 52%8%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some dissenters favoring cuts. This signaled a cautious approach, supporting market expectations of no change at the June meeting.
Fed officials divided on rate cuts amid economic uncertainty
No change jumps to 37%5%
Fed minutes from December revealed a split among officials on whether to cut rates or hold steady, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and the labor market. This division contributed to market volatility but ultimately supported the no change consensus as the Fed awaited clearer data.
Economic data shows slowing hiring and persistent inflation
No change jumps to 37%6%
Reports indicated that hiring slowed in December 2025 despite Fed rate cuts, while inflation remained above target. This mixed economic data complicated the Fed's decision-making, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting to balance inflation control and labor market support.
Fed’s Beth Hammack says rates could stay steady for a long time
No change jumps to 55%10%
Beth Hammack told the Ohio Bankers Association that rates could stay “where they are for a long time”, reinforcing the market’s view that a near‑term cut was unlikely and helping the “No change” price climb from the low‑40s in late January to the mid‑50s by early February.
Fed official: interest rates could remain steady for a long time
No change jumps to 53%7%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates could stay where they are for a long time, dampening expectations of a February cut and contributing to the market’s swing toward the “no‑change” outcome.
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case
No change jumps to 37%5%
Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his support for Fed independence, reassuring markets about the Fed's autonomy in rate decisions.
Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that interest rates might stay at current levels for an extended period, reflecting cautious optimism about the economy. This reinforced market expectations of no imminent rate changes in early 2026.
Cleveland Fed President Says Rates Could Remain Steady for a Long Time
No change dips to 51%3%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told bankers that rates could stay “where they are for a long time.” Her reassurance reduced market expectations of a cut, pushing the “25 bps decrease” price down from ~54 % on Feb 6 to ~51 % on Feb 14.
Prosecutors attempt unannounced site visit at Fed headquarters
No change jumps to 38%8%
Federal prosecutors tried to access the Fed’s renovation site, underscoring the intensity of the investigation and reinforcing market belief that the Fed would not yield to political pressure by changing rates.
Mortgage rates dip as market anticipates further Fed easing
25 bps increase jumps to 37%11%
A fall in 30‑year mortgage rates reflected expectations of additional cuts, briefly lifting the 25 bps increase price before the market reversed later in February.
Fed officials say inflation still above target, rates likely to hold
No change drops to 30%14%
Fed officials signaled that inflation remained above target and that rates would likely stay steady. The reassurance caused a sharp drop in the “25 bps decrease” probability, moving the market toward “No change”.
Trump again pushes for lower rates; Powell warns of political pressure
No change jumps to 98%8%
President Trump publicly reiterated his demand for lower rates while Powell again warned that political pressure would undermine the Fed. The back‑and‑forth reinforced market consensus that the Fed would stay on its current 3.6 % target range, pushing “No change” to an all‑time high of 98 % on May 18.
Fed minutes reveal potential for rate hikes if inflation stays above target
No change jumps to 45%5%
Minutes from the April 28-29 meeting indicated a hawkish stance with officials open to further rate hikes if inflation remains above 2%. This reduced expectations for rate cuts by June and supported the no change outcome.
Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony
25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7%
The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold.
Fed minutes show officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts
No change jumps to 46%8%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting revealed most officials favored holding rates steady until inflation falls further, reinforcing market pricing of no change at the June meeting despite some dissenters favoring cuts.
Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 92%8%
The high‑court hearing on whether President Trump can remove Governor Cook signaled potential changes to the Board’s composition, prompting markets to anticipate a cautious Fed that would likely hold rates steady.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change rises to 47%3%
The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The court appeared inclined to allow Cook to remain, signaling limits on presidential control over the Fed and supporting market expectations of policy stability.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair
No change jumps to 93%7%
Trump nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as chair. Senate hesitation over the nomination, linked to the ongoing DOJ probe, led traders to price in a higher likelihood that the Fed would leave policy unchanged until the leadership issue was resolved.
Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing amid political tensions
No change jumps to 37%5%
The Supreme Court took up a politically charged case regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the ongoing political struggle over the Fed's independence. This event underscored the heightened political risks surrounding Fed policy decisions, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.6% in first 2026 meeting
No change jumps to 48%5%
The Fed held rates steady at about 3.6% during the January 27-28, 2026 meeting, reflecting a split committee and ongoing inflation concerns. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the near term, tempering earlier expectations for cuts.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first 2026 policy decision
No change rises to 48%4%
The Fed maintained its rate at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, with officials citing subdued job growth and persistent inflation. The decision was widely anticipated, with only two dissenting votes.
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75 % Target Range
The FOMC voted 10‑2 to keep the federal‑funds target range at 3.50‑3.75 %, ending three consecutive cuts. The decision was widely expected, reinforcing market belief that rates would remain unchanged through the spring.
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady at First Meeting of 2026
No change drops to 30%5%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in First 2026 Policy Decision
No change surges to 98%41%
The Fed voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell signaling a wait-and-see approach as inflation remained elevated and labor market uncertainty persisted.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%
No change jumps to 45%11%
The Fed paused its rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid ongoing inflation pressures and steady economic growth. The decision was widely expected and reflected a cautious approach to balance inflation control with economic recovery. Two FOMC members dissented, favoring a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal committee divisions.
US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated uncertainty
No change jumps to 48%5%
In its first rate decision of 2026, the Fed maintained the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including the Iran war. The decision was widely expected and reflected the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate despite political pressure to cut rates.
Fed votes to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
No change surges to 96%39%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate range unchanged, defying administration calls for cuts and ending three consecutive quarter-point reductions.
President Trump Presses Fed for Immediate Rate Cuts
No change jumps to 57%13%
Trump publicly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates, intensifying political pressure. While the market already priced a hold, the additional scrutiny briefly lifted the “No change” price to 57 % on Jan 27.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5‑3.75 % in January 2026 meeting
No change drops to 48%9%
The FOMC kept the target federal‑funds rate unchanged at 3.50‑3.75 % – the first pause after three consecutive cuts in late‑2025. Two governors (Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller) dissented, favouring a 25 bp cut. The surprise pause drove the market sharply toward the “No change” outcome, lifting its price from roughly 57 % on Dec 10 2025 to 48 % on Jan 4 2026 and eventually to 98 % by early May.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting
No change jumps to 48%5%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in its first meeting of 2026. Two members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut, but the majority signaled a pause amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation, reinforcing market expectations for no immediate rate changes.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
No change drops to 43%5%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing economic pressures. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate changes, contributing to the initial rise in the 'No change' outcome price.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January Meeting
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% despite economic expansion, signaling a cautious approach to rate changes.
Fed minutes reveal majority want inflation progress before rate cuts
No change rises to 48%4%
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to keep rates steady until inflation falls further, signaling a cautious approach. This reinforced market pricing for no change at the June meeting.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% during its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a pause in rate changes amid ongoing inflation concerns. This decision set the tone for market expectations of no immediate rate moves in early 2026.
Trump names Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change drops to 45%5%
Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his successor signaled a possible shift toward higher rates, causing the market to tilt away from “25 bps increase”.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change rises to 47%2%
Bessent’s proposal to let the Board veto regional presidents increased speculation that the White House could gain more control over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a hold‑steady policy.
Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump's bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change surges to 86%15%
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the case to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. While the Court did not immediately rule, the hearing signaled a possible disruption of the board’s composition, prompting market participants to hedge toward a “No change” outcome to avoid volatility from a potential board reshuffle.
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 48%6%
The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case with implications for Fed independence. The court appeared inclined to keep Cook on the board, signaling judicial support for the Fed's autonomy, which bolstered market confidence in no rate change.
Supreme Court appears likely to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook in office
No change rises to 48%1%
The Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled a probable decision to maintain her position, preserving the current Fed board balance and limiting political influence, which supported market expectations of no rate change.
Supreme Court appears inclined to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid Trump firing attempt
No change surges to 87%24%
The Supreme Court showed skepticism toward President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the Fed's political independence. This legal development bolstered market confidence that the Fed's policy decisions would remain insulated from political interference, supporting the no change outcome.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair
No change jumps to 48%5%
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential continuity but also political influence. Markets reacted by stabilizing expectations around no change, as Warsh was seen as capable but facing challenges in pushing rate cuts.
Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair
No change jumps to 50%5%
President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change.
Justice Department ends criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 84%13%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the investigation, removing a major source of political pressure and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before the June meeting.
Trump attacks Powell over building renovation and urges credit‑card rate cap
25 bps decrease rises to 54%4%
Trump’s public criticism of Powell’s handling of the Fed building renovation and calls for a 10 % credit‑card‑rate cap raised concerns about political pressure, nudging the market toward “25 bps decrease”.
Top central bankers express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
No change jumps to 52%10%
Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell following the DOJ investigation and political pressure from President Trump. This global backing reinforced the Fed's independence and market confidence that the Fed would maintain current rates rather than yield to political demands for cuts or hikes.
Federal prosecutors visit Fed building amid ongoing investigation
No change drops to 42%6%
Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's construction site related to the renovation investigation, underscoring the administration's persistence despite lack of evidence. Concurrently, President Trump threatened to fire Powell, increasing political tensions but markets remained confident in Fed independence and no rate change.
Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook
No change jumps to 42%5%
The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump could fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move. Powell attended the hearing, signaling Fed leadership's support for independence. This event underscored political tensions but reinforced expectations that the Fed would act based on economic conditions, supporting no rate change.
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid legal and political scrutiny
No change jumps to 53%5%
Ahead of the January Fed meeting, officials signaled a likely hold on interest rates despite ongoing DOJ investigation and political pressure. Chair Powell emphasized economic data as the basis for decisions, reinforcing market confidence in no change at upcoming meetings.
Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 60%13%
Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell amid political attacks and DOJ investigation, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy, pushing the no change probability higher.
Global central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
Top central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current rates.
Central bankers worldwide express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid political pressure
No change rises to 48%4%
Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the critical importance of central bank independence. This global backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current interest rates.
Global central banks issue solidarity statement with Fed Chair Powell
No change jumps to 41%8%
Nine major central banks publicly backed Powell’s independence, temporarily calming markets but not reversing the move toward "No change" as political risk remained high.
Top central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash
No change jumps to 52%5%
Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy despite political pressures.
Stocks close higher despite DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell
No change rises to 52%4%
Despite the DOJ criminal investigation news, stocks closed higher, indicating investor confidence in the Fed's independence and a steady interest rate outlook. Powell's public rebuke of the probe as politically motivated helped stabilize market expectations toward no rate change.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 37%6%
Federal prosecutors confirmed a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovation. Powell stated this was part of a political effort to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, which bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain independence and keep rates steady.
Treasury secretary warns Trump that DOJ probe is a distraction
No change surges to 98%41%
Sources reported Treasury Secretary Bessent warned President Trump about the DOJ probe’s distraction, echoing concerns from Republican senators. The news reinforced market expectations that policymakers would avoid a rate move until the legal cloud cleared, lifting the “No change” price to near‑99 % by early February.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure
No change jumps to 45%8%
Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market.
Trump says Fed rates are far too high and urges immediate cuts
No change jumps to 71%8%
Trump publicly demanded that the Fed cut rates sharply, calling current rates “far too high.” His aggressive stance reinforced market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged to avoid a political showdown, reinforcing the “No change” price surge.
Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
25 bps decrease drops to 38%12%
The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract.
Treasury Secretary Bessent pushes residency rule for Fed regional presidents
No change jumps to 92%8%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly urged a residency rule for regional Fed presidents, signaling a push for greater political control. Market participants reacted by moving away from the “25 bps increase” outcome toward “No change”.
Fed Chair Powell reveals DOJ subpoena and criminal threat over testimony
Jerome Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment over his June testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's independence, contributing to market confidence in a cautious, steady rate policy.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve and launches criminal investigation into Chair Powell
No change rises to 47%3%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and launched a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented political pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution about rate changes.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change surges to 98%41%
The DOJ initiated a criminal probe into Powell related to his testimony about Fed building renovations, sparking fears of political interference in rate-setting. Powell called it a 'pretext' to pressure the Fed to lower rates, causing market uncertainty.
Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe into his testimony about Fed building renovation
No change surges to 98%41%
Powell issued a video statement denouncing the DOJ's criminal investigation into his June testimony about Fed building renovations as politically motivated 'pretexts' to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure rate cuts.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve amid investigation into Powell
No change jumps to 55%7%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal indictment of Chair Jerome Powell over his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution regarding rate changes.
Fed Chair Powell publicly condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure
No change jumps to 37%6%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued a video statement condemning the Justice Department subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' to punish the Fed for not cutting rates as sharply as President Trump wanted. This reinforced the Fed's stance to base rate decisions on economic data, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenaed the central bank, threatens criminal indictment
No change surges to 63%18%
Powell released a video message confirming that the DOJ had subpoenaed the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment over his June testimony on the Fed’s building renovation. The announcement sparked fears of political interference and pushed the market sharply toward a “No change” outlook as traders anticipated the Fed would avoid any action that could be used against it.
DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment related to his testimony on the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about Fed independence but did not shift market expectations for rate changes.
DOJ subpoenas Fed, threatens criminal indictment of Chair Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal charges against Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence.
Justice Department subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell
No change rises to 48%4%
The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation, escalating political pressure on the Fed. Powell publicly condemned the probe as a pretext to influence monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence.
Powell confirms DOJ criminal probe, calls it political pretext
No change surges to 70%26%
Chair Powell released a video message confirming the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed’s building renovation, describing it as a political “pretext”. The announcement sparked a sharp sell‑off in Fed‑rate‑sensitive markets, pushing the “No change” probability up from the low‑40s to over 70 % within a day.
Supreme Court hearing on Lisa Cook firing case
No change rises to 47%2%
The Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments on the Trump administration’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, signaling potential limits on presidential control over the Fed and bolstering expectations of policy stability.
Powell calls DOJ subpoenas a pretext to force rate cuts
No change jumps to 94%5%
Powell released a video stating the DOJ subpoenas were “pretexts” to pressure the Fed to cut rates. The clarification reassured markets that rate policy would stay unchanged, boosting the “No change” price.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 98%7%
The DOJ announced it was ending its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political cloud. The news removed fears of a forced rate‑cut agenda, causing the market to swing dramatically to the “No change” bracket.
Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid investigation of Powell’s testimony
No change drops to 36%5%
The DOJ’s criminal probe heightened political risk for the Fed, prompting markets to price in a more cautious stance and shifting sentiment toward no further cuts.
Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts
No change rises to 45%1%
Powell’s public video stating the subpoenas were meant to pressure the Fed to cut rates heightened market fears of political interference, further solidifying bets on no rate change.
Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe as politically motivated
No change jumps to 57%9%
Following reports of a DOJ criminal investigation into Powell's testimony about Fed building renovations, Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the probe as a politically motivated attempt to influence Fed policy. This bolstered market confidence in Fed independence and reduced expectations for rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell rebukes DOJ criminal investigation as political pressure
No change jumps to 56%8%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly condemned the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed's building renovations, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. This event highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting market expectations of no rate change.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair
No change surges to 85%23%
Trump’s nomination signaled a possible shift toward a more dovish Fed, prompting a further rise in the No‑change price (62 % → 85 %) as markets priced in political resistance to rate cuts.
Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure
No change rises to 48%4%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly rebuked the Justice Department's subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. This statement underscored the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, bolstering market confidence in no rate change.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 71%14%
The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political attacks could force the Fed to maintain its policy stance and avoid further cuts.
January jobs report shows 130,000 hires, unemployment falls to 4.3%
25 bps decrease rises to 50%3%
Stronger‑than‑expected payrolls suggested a resilient labor market, increasing expectations that the Fed could consider another cut, briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change drops to 44%13%
The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to cut rates. Traders interpreted the move as a threat to Fed independence, boosting confidence in a No‑change outcome.
Wall Street opens 2026 with mixed outlook for Fed cuts
No change rises to 48%4%
The first trading day of 2026 saw modest gains but analysts noted that the market was pricing in a hold at the upcoming January meeting, reducing demand for further cuts and boosting the "No change" price.
Fed’s December 2025 rate cut reveals divisions among officials
25 bps decrease rises to 60%3%
The Fed cut the target federal‑funds range by a quarter‑point to 3.6% (9‑3 vote). The announcement triggered a sharp rise in the market’s “25 bps decrease” price, which later fell as the market re‑priced expectations of further cuts.
Fed minutes reveal deep divisions over future rate cuts
No change surges to 98%41%
Minutes showed seven of 19 policymakers projected no reductions in 2026, while eight wanted at least two cuts. The policy statement was amended to include 'extent and timing' language, signaling a pause in rate cuts until clearer economic data emerged.
Fed minutes show deep divisions over December rate cut
25 bps decrease drops to 40%10%
The minutes revealed a highly divisive meeting with some members acknowledging the decision was finely balanced, highlighting the Fed's internal disagreement about future policy direction.
Fed minutes reveal deep policy divisions at December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 40%10%
The minutes showed that even supporters of the rate cut acknowledged the decision was finely balanced, reflecting the Fed's divided opinion on future monetary policy.
President Trump publicly calls for deeper rate cuts
No change rises to 45%1%
Trump reiterated his demand for the Fed to lower rates to as low as 1%, intensifying political pressure and prompting traders to bet the Fed would avoid a cut to maintain credibility.
Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts
Powell issued a video message calling the subpoenas a pretext to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would resist political demands and hold rates unchanged.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
No change drops to 43%14%
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move aimed to support economic activity amid easing inflation and a softening labor market, setting the stage for cautious monetary policy in 2026.
Federal Reserve officials signal possible rate cut in December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 44%13%
Fed officials hinted at a potential quarter‑point cut in the Dec 9‑10 meeting, sparking optimism for lower rates and briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price before it fell back as the cut was confirmed.
U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting.
Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut
Released minutes showed two officials had voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a half‑point cut, highlighting dissent and raising doubts about further easing.
Fed cuts rates to 3.5-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
25 bps decrease plunges to 1%49%
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3.5-3.75% after a 25-basis-point cut, with the decision influenced by a slowing labor market and rising unemployment. The market initially priced in a single cut for 2026.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid divided committee
No change rises to 48%4%
In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points after a closely contested vote, reflecting uncertainty among officials about inflation and labor market conditions. This decision influenced market expectations, initially supporting the possibility of further cuts but also highlighting divisions that made large moves less certain.
Fed Beige Book Shows Stubborn Inflation Ahead of Year‑End
The first price point in the data set (57 % for “No change”) coincides with the release of the December 2025 Federal Reserve Beige Book, which highlighted persistent inflation and kept the market betting on a hold.
Fed minutes show officials in tight split over December rate cut
25 bps decrease drops to 50%7%
The minutes revealed that some members who supported the rate cut indicated the decision was finely balanced, reflecting the Fed's internal disagreement about future policy.
Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting
No change jumps to 84%13%
Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change.
Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell
No change surges to 62%18%
The DOJ’s decision to drop its investigation removed a major political risk, leading traders to expect the Fed to maintain its current stance, which lifted the No‑change contract from 44 % to 62 % over the next week.
U.S. inflation rises to 2.8% in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
Core CPI increased to 2.8% YoY, signalling persistent price pressures and leading market participants to anticipate the Fed would keep rates unchanged.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points amid divided committee
25 bps decrease drops to 40%10%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to about 3.6%, the third cut that year, but the decision was marked by unusual dissent (9-3 vote), reflecting uncertainty about the economy and inflation. This cautious move influenced market expectations, initially lowering the probability of no change and increasing expectations for rate cuts.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps at December meeting
25 bps decrease drops to 41%9%
The FOMC voted 9‑3 to lower the target federal funds rate by a quarter point, the first cut of the year, which shifted market odds toward a 25‑bps decrease.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid internal dissent
No change drops to 35%7%
At the December 9-10, 2025 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in a 9-3 vote, reflecting divisions within the committee about inflation and labor market risks. This decision influenced market expectations by signaling cautious easing but with uncertainty about future moves.
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts.
Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials
No change drops to 33%9%
At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was close with a 9-3 vote, reflecting uncertainty about inflation versus labor market risks. This underscored the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations of no further immediate cuts.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid labor market concerns
No change jumps to 48%7%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting internal divisions and uncertainty about future moves. This supported market expectations for no further immediate cuts.
Fed signals cautious 2026 outlook with limited rate cuts expected
No change rises to 48%4%
Alongside the rate cut, the Fed's projections indicated just one more quarter-point reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, with inflation expected to remain above target until 2028. The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, supporting a moderate economic expansion. This tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts, reinforcing the market's shift toward the 'No change' outcome.
FOMC statement confirms December 2025 rate cut
25 bps decrease jumps to 57%7%
The official FOMC statement on Dec 10 2025 announced a 25‑bps cut, reinforcing the “25 bps decrease” outcome and pushing its price up before the later decline.
Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% amid cooling inflation
25 bps decrease drops to 44%6%
The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps in December 2025, signaling a cautious easing cycle as inflation gradually cooled but employment risks remained. This move initially boosted equity markets and shifted expectations for future cuts.
Fed minutes show split over December rate cut
No change drops to 44%13%
The released minutes from the Dec. 9‑10 FOMC meeting highlighted a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut and noted dissent from two officials, signaling uncertainty and prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of further cuts.
Fed cuts rates by a quarter‑point at its December meeting
No change drops to 44%13%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.5‑3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and reinforcing expectations of continued easing.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic uncertainty
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025. This decision was driven by concerns over a slowing labor market and persistent inflation, signaling a cautious approach to support economic growth while managing inflation risks.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic uncertainty
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025. This decision was driven by concerns over a weakening labor market and persistent inflation, signaling a cautious approach to support economic growth. The move set the stage for the rate level prior to the 2026 meetings.
Fed cuts federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.5-3.75%
25 bps decrease plunges to 1%49%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to cut rates by 25 basis points, the third consecutive reduction, lowering the target range to 3.5% to 3.75%. This dovish move initially boosted the 25 bps decrease option but market expectations shifted as only one cut was projected for 2026.
Congressman Boyle criticizes Fed rate cut
No change surges to 98%41%
House Budget Committee Democrat Brendan F. Boyle criticized the rate cut, calling it evidence of a 'weakening job market' and a 'sorry state' of the economy. This political reaction may have contributed to market volatility.
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change drops to 44%13%
The Department of Justice announced a criminal probe into Chairman Powell’s testimony on a Fed building renovation, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to keep rates steady to preserve independence.
Fed minutes reveal divided views but lean towards steady rates
Minutes from the December 9-10 Fed meeting showed a split among officials, with a narrow vote for a quarter-point cut but significant dissent favoring no change. This highlighted uncertainty and a cautious stance, supporting market expectations for no change in June.
Federal Reserve restarts Treasury security purchases
25 bps decrease drops to 50%7%
The Fed announced it would resume buying Treasury securities, a move designed to support the banking system and prevent a significant decline in reserves.
Fed minutes reveal narrow 9‑3 vote for a 25 bps cut on Dec 9‑10
No change jumps to 57%13%
The Fed’s December 2025 meeting minutes showed a 9‑3 vote to cut rates by a quarter‑point, highlighting internal splits. Traders interpreted the close vote as a signal that further cuts were uncertain, pushing the market sharply toward the “No change” outcome.
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