Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 because any such change requires new legislation repealing the Federal Reserve Act, which faces entrenched institutional resistance, Senate procedural hurdles, and limited congressional backing beyond a small group of sponsors. Companion bills introduced in March 2025 remain stalled in committee with minimal cosponsors, while recent Fed leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh has pursued operational reforms such as balance-sheet reductions and task forces rather than dissolution. Broader political consensus favors preserving central-bank independence amid ongoing monetary-policy debates. Realistic shifts could still emerge from a severe financial crisis attributed to the Fed, a decisive change in congressional majorities enabling filibuster reform, or coordinated executive and legislative pressure that overcomes standard legislative inertia.