Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.2% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, driven by the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy since 1913 and the absence of viable legislative momentum. Perennial bills like H.R.1846 and S.869 in the 119th Congress (2025-2026) have garnered no committee advancement or bipartisan support, underscoring structural barriers requiring supermajority congressional action amid economic stability imperatives. Recent Federal Reserve actions—such as proposals to eliminate reputation risk in supervision and Basel III capital adjustments—reinforce operational continuity rather than disruption. Tail risks include extreme political upheaval, like a debt crisis prompting radical reform, though markets dismiss these as remote given upcoming FOMC meetings and mid-term elections.