Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with resilient labor-market data including 172,000 May job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, has created a closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% against any rate hike in 2026. Traders now price in a data-dependent path at the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate, with futures curves embedding limited scope for near-term easing and modest room for tightening if price pressures fail to moderate. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, alongside subsequent inflation and employment prints.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
$1,487,788 ปริมาณ
$1,487,788 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
ใช่
$1,487,788 ปริมาณ
$1,487,788 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with resilient labor-market data including 172,000 May job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, has created a closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% against any rate hike in 2026. Traders now price in a data-dependent path at the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate, with futures curves embedding limited scope for near-term easing and modest room for tightening if price pressures fail to moderate. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, alongside subsequent inflation and employment prints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,487,788วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with resilient labor-market data including 172,000 May job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, has created a closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% against any rate hike in 2026. Traders now price in a data-dependent path at the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate, with futures curves embedding limited scope for near-term easing and modest room for tightening if price pressures fail to moderate. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, alongside subsequent inflation and employment prints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,487,788วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with resilient labor-market data including 172,000 May job gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, has created a closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% against any rate hike in 2026. Traders now price in a data-dependent path at the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate, with futures curves embedding limited scope for near-term easing and modest room for tightening if price pressures fail to moderate. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting stand as immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, alongside subsequent inflation and employment prints.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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