Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The August employment report showed 162,000 nonfarm payrolls—well above forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation printed 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. These figures, alongside supply-side pressures, have prompted several banks including UBS to shift from a hold to two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The June FOMC dot plot already showed nine participants projecting a higher year-end rate, and Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a hawkish reaction function. With the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data imminent, trader consensus reflects elevated odds that policy will tighten further this year rather than remain on hold through 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
71% โอกาส
$8,773,095 ปริมาณ
$8,773,095 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
ใช่
71% โอกาส
$8,773,095 ปริมาณ
$8,773,095 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The August employment report showed 162,000 nonfarm payrolls—well above forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation printed 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. These figures, alongside supply-side pressures, have prompted several banks including UBS to shift from a hold to two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The June FOMC dot plot already showed nine participants projecting a higher year-end rate, and Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a hawkish reaction function. With the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data imminent, trader consensus reflects elevated odds that policy will tighten further this year rather than remain on hold through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,773,095วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The August employment report showed 162,000 nonfarm payrolls—well above forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation printed 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. These figures, alongside supply-side pressures, have prompted several banks including UBS to shift from a hold to two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The June FOMC dot plot already showed nine participants projecting a higher year-end rate, and Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a hawkish reaction function. With the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data imminent, trader consensus reflects elevated odds that policy will tighten further this year rather than remain on hold through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,773,095วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces behind the 70.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The August employment report showed 162,000 nonfarm payrolls—well above forecasts—with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation printed 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. These figures, alongside supply-side pressures, have prompted several banks including UBS to shift from a hold to two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end. The June FOMC dot plot already showed nine participants projecting a higher year-end rate, and Chair Warsh’s communications have reinforced a hawkish reaction function. With the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI data imminent, trader consensus reflects elevated odds that policy will tighten further this year rather than remain on hold through 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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