Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.7% through mid-2026 and persistent pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy costs, have anchored trader expectations for a series of holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target, driving the 78% implied probability on "Other" paths that incorporate potential September tightening or mixed outcomes. The July FOMC decision to pause (9-3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and softer July payrolls and retail sales reinforced caution, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent stance and Jackson Hole comments kept September hike odds in play without locking in a single sequence. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these crosscurrents rather than a guaranteed trajectory, with the upcoming September 15-16 meeting and August CPI/employment releases as key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among hold-only, hike-inclusive, or other combinations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$865,126 ปริมาณ
$865,126 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$865,126 ปริมาณ
$865,126 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,899 ปริมาณ
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,261 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$374,090 ปริมาณ
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.7% through mid-2026 and persistent pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy costs, have anchored trader expectations for a series of holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target, driving the 78% implied probability on "Other" paths that incorporate potential September tightening or mixed outcomes. The July FOMC decision to pause (9-3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and softer July payrolls and retail sales reinforced caution, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent stance and Jackson Hole comments kept September hike odds in play without locking in a single sequence. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these crosscurrents rather than a guaranteed trajectory, with the upcoming September 15-16 meeting and August CPI/employment releases as key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among hold-only, hike-inclusive, or other combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$865,126วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.7% through mid-2026 and persistent pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy costs, have anchored trader expectations for a series of holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target, driving the 78% implied probability on "Other" paths that incorporate potential September tightening or mixed outcomes. The July FOMC decision to pause (9-3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and softer July payrolls and retail sales reinforced caution, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent stance and Jackson Hole comments kept September hike odds in play without locking in a single sequence. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these crosscurrents rather than a guaranteed trajectory, with the upcoming September 15-16 meeting and August CPI/employment releases as key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among hold-only, hike-inclusive, or other combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$865,126วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.7% through mid-2026 and persistent pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy costs, have anchored trader expectations for a series of holds at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target, driving the 78% implied probability on "Other" paths that incorporate potential September tightening or mixed outcomes. The July FOMC decision to pause (9-3 vote with three hawkish dissents) and softer July payrolls and retail sales reinforced caution, while Chair Warsh’s data-dependent stance and Jackson Hole comments kept September hike odds in play without locking in a single sequence. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these crosscurrents rather than a guaranteed trajectory, with the upcoming September 15-16 meeting and August CPI/employment releases as key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among hold-only, hike-inclusive, or other combinations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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