Elevated July 2026 inflation readings, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target, remain the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-August Jackson Hole remarks, stressing the need for clearer disinflation momentum or else “work to do,” reinforced expectations of a data-dependent, less dovish policy path after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% in July. Stable labor-market conditions, including a 4.1% unemployment rate, have not offset these price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 70.5% chance of no change and a 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike while assigning minimal weight to cuts. The September FOMC and upcoming CPI and employment releases will be the next key inputs shaping the October decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$1,031,070 ปริมาณ
$1,031,070 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$1,031,070 ปริมาณ
$1,031,070 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$175,970 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$365,712 ปริมาณ
4%
No change
$188,204 ปริมาณ
71%
25 bps increase
$179,376 ปริมาณ
27%
50+ bps increase
$121,808 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July 2026 inflation readings, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target, remain the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-August Jackson Hole remarks, stressing the need for clearer disinflation momentum or else “work to do,” reinforced expectations of a data-dependent, less dovish policy path after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% in July. Stable labor-market conditions, including a 4.1% unemployment rate, have not offset these price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 70.5% chance of no change and a 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike while assigning minimal weight to cuts. The September FOMC and upcoming CPI and employment releases will be the next key inputs shaping the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,031,070วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July 2026 inflation readings, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target, remain the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-August Jackson Hole remarks, stressing the need for clearer disinflation momentum or else “work to do,” reinforced expectations of a data-dependent, less dovish policy path after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% in July. Stable labor-market conditions, including a 4.1% unemployment rate, have not offset these price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 70.5% chance of no change and a 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike while assigning minimal weight to cuts. The September FOMC and upcoming CPI and employment releases will be the next key inputs shaping the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,031,070วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated July 2026 inflation readings, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target, remain the dominant factor anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC. Chair Kevin Warsh’s late-August Jackson Hole remarks, stressing the need for clearer disinflation momentum or else “work to do,” reinforced expectations of a data-dependent, less dovish policy path after the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% in July. Stable labor-market conditions, including a 4.1% unemployment rate, have not offset these price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing a 70.5% chance of no change and a 26.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike while assigning minimal weight to cuts. The September FOMC and upcoming CPI and employment releases will be the next key inputs shaping the October decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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