Trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market, with Pause–Pause–Pause at a 59% implied probability, centers on persistent inflation readings and resilient labor market data that have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent hold stance. Recent CPI and employment releases through mid-2026 have shown only modest cooling, supporting market-implied odds that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the September and October meetings. The 40% probability assigned to “Other” sequences captures residual uncertainty around potential downside surprises in growth or inflation, while lower-probability paths involving cuts reflect limited conviction in near-term easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC statement, fresh nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation expectations that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$715,685 ปริมาณ
$715,685 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$715,685 ปริมาณ
$715,685 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$236,435 ปริมาณ
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,752 ปริมาณ
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$38,903 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$311,047 ปริมาณ
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market, with Pause–Pause–Pause at a 59% implied probability, centers on persistent inflation readings and resilient labor market data that have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent hold stance. Recent CPI and employment releases through mid-2026 have shown only modest cooling, supporting market-implied odds that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the September and October meetings. The 40% probability assigned to “Other” sequences captures residual uncertainty around potential downside surprises in growth or inflation, while lower-probability paths involving cuts reflect limited conviction in near-term easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC statement, fresh nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation expectations that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$715,685วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market, with Pause–Pause–Pause at a 59% implied probability, centers on persistent inflation readings and resilient labor market data that have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent hold stance. Recent CPI and employment releases through mid-2026 have shown only modest cooling, supporting market-implied odds that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the September and October meetings. The 40% probability assigned to “Other” sequences captures residual uncertainty around potential downside surprises in growth or inflation, while lower-probability paths involving cuts reflect limited conviction in near-term easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC statement, fresh nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation expectations that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$715,685วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market, with Pause–Pause–Pause at a 59% implied probability, centers on persistent inflation readings and resilient labor market data that have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent hold stance. Recent CPI and employment releases through mid-2026 have shown only modest cooling, supporting market-implied odds that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the September and October meetings. The 40% probability assigned to “Other” sequences captures residual uncertainty around potential downside surprises in growth or inflation, while lower-probability paths involving cuts reflect limited conviction in near-term easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC statement, fresh nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation expectations that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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