Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—recent CPI prints near 3.4–4.2% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—has anchored trader expectations for no rate cuts through October, driving the 54% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike) reinforced this view, as did resilient labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3% and solid payroll gains. With the next CPI releases and the September 15–16 meeting approaching, markets price only marginal odds on any cut sequence while the 39.5% “Other” bucket captures potential hawkish shifts if inflation fails to moderate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Pause–Pause–Pause 54%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$719,683 ปริมาณ
$719,683 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
54%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 54%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$719,683 ปริมาณ
$719,683 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$238,420 ปริมาณ
54%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$59,838 ปริมาณ
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$311,151 ปริมาณ
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—recent CPI prints near 3.4–4.2% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—has anchored trader expectations for no rate cuts through October, driving the 54% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike) reinforced this view, as did resilient labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3% and solid payroll gains. With the next CPI releases and the September 15–16 meeting approaching, markets price only marginal odds on any cut sequence while the 39.5% “Other” bucket captures potential hawkish shifts if inflation fails to moderate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$719,683วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—recent CPI prints near 3.4–4.2% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—has anchored trader expectations for no rate cuts through October, driving the 54% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike) reinforced this view, as did resilient labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3% and solid payroll gains. With the next CPI releases and the September 15–16 meeting approaching, markets price only marginal odds on any cut sequence while the 39.5% “Other” bucket captures potential hawkish shifts if inflation fails to moderate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$719,683วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—recent CPI prints near 3.4–4.2% amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—has anchored trader expectations for no rate cuts through October, driving the 54% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the July, September, and October FOMC meetings. The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% (9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike) reinforced this view, as did resilient labor market data showing unemployment near 4.3% and solid payroll gains. With the next CPI releases and the September 15–16 meeting approaching, markets price only marginal odds on any cut sequence while the 39.5% “Other” bucket captures potential hawkish shifts if inflation fails to moderate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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