Recent institutional forecasts, including the Federal Reserve's June projections and CBO's February outlook, point to U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0-2.2% in 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and policy support. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied odds against negative annual growth, reflecting trader consensus that contraction remains unlikely absent major shocks. Leading indicators such as solid labor market data and moderate inflation trajectories reinforce the positive baseline. However, realistic challenges include escalation of tariffs, fiscal tightening, or geopolitical disruptions that could weigh on investment and trade, potentially tipping quarterly readings negative even if the full-year figure holds positive.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$31,783 ปริมาณ
$31,783 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$31,783 ปริมาณ
$31,783 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent institutional forecasts, including the Federal Reserve's June projections and CBO's February outlook, point to U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0-2.2% in 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and policy support. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied odds against negative annual growth, reflecting trader consensus that contraction remains unlikely absent major shocks. Leading indicators such as solid labor market data and moderate inflation trajectories reinforce the positive baseline. However, realistic challenges include escalation of tariffs, fiscal tightening, or geopolitical disruptions that could weigh on investment and trade, potentially tipping quarterly readings negative even if the full-year figure holds positive.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,783วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent institutional forecasts, including the Federal Reserve's June projections and CBO's February outlook, point to U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0-2.2% in 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and policy support. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied odds against negative annual growth, reflecting trader consensus that contraction remains unlikely absent major shocks. Leading indicators such as solid labor market data and moderate inflation trajectories reinforce the positive baseline. However, realistic challenges include escalation of tariffs, fiscal tightening, or geopolitical disruptions that could weigh on investment and trade, potentially tipping quarterly readings negative even if the full-year figure holds positive.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,783วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent institutional forecasts, including the Federal Reserve's June projections and CBO's February outlook, point to U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0-2.2% in 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and policy support. This underpins the 94.5% market-implied odds against negative annual growth, reflecting trader consensus that contraction remains unlikely absent major shocks. Leading indicators such as solid labor market data and moderate inflation trajectories reinforce the positive baseline. However, realistic challenges include escalation of tariffs, fiscal tightening, or geopolitical disruptions that could weigh on investment and trade, potentially tipping quarterly readings negative even if the full-year figure holds positive.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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