Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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