**Market-implied odds of 86.8% against negative full-year U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflect broad consensus forecasts for positive expansion around 2.2%.** Q1 2026 real GDP rose at a 1.6% annualized rate per the Bureau of Economic Analysis second estimate, with stable unemployment near 4.3% and resilient labor-market data supporting the outlook. Fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax relief and full expensing of capital investments, alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, are projected to boost consumer spending and private investment. These tailwinds outweigh headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Forecasters from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed, and private institutions consistently project above-trend growth for the year, with recession risks cited at 20–35% over the next 12 months. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, employment report, and FOMC communications, which could refine policy expectations and confirm the expansion path. Trader positioning aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in continued positive real GDP growth rather than contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Market-implied odds of 86.8% against negative full-year U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflect broad consensus forecasts for positive expansion around 2.2%.**
Q1 2026 real GDP rose at a 1.6% annualized rate per the Bureau of Economic Analysis second estimate, with stable unemployment near 4.3% and resilient labor-market data supporting the outlook. Fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax relief and full expensing of capital investments, alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, are projected to boost consumer spending and private investment. These tailwinds outweigh headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects.
Forecasters from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed, and private institutions consistently project above-trend growth for the year, with recession risks cited at 20–35% over the next 12 months. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, employment report, and FOMC communications, which could refine policy expectations and confirm the expansion path. Trader positioning aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in continued positive real GDP growth rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.**Market-implied odds of 86.8% against negative full-year U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflect broad consensus forecasts for positive expansion around 2.2%.**
Q1 2026 real GDP rose at a 1.6% annualized rate per the Bureau of Economic Analysis second estimate, with stable unemployment near 4.3% and resilient labor-market data supporting the outlook. Fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax relief and full expensing of capital investments, alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, are projected to boost consumer spending and private investment. These tailwinds outweigh headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects.
Forecasters from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed, and private institutions consistently project above-trend growth for the year, with recession risks cited at 20–35% over the next 12 months. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, employment report, and FOMC communications, which could refine policy expectations and confirm the expansion path. Trader positioning aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in continued positive real GDP growth rather than contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Market-implied odds of 86.8% against negative full-year U.S. GDP growth in 2026 reflect broad consensus forecasts for positive expansion around 2.2%.** Q1 2026 real GDP rose at a 1.6% annualized rate per the Bureau of Economic Analysis second estimate, with stable unemployment near 4.3% and resilient labor-market data supporting the outlook. Fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax relief and full expensing of capital investments, alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, are projected to boost consumer spending and private investment. These tailwinds outweigh headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Forecasters from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed, and private institutions consistently project above-trend growth for the year, with recession risks cited at 20–35% over the next 12 months. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, employment report, and FOMC communications, which could refine policy expectations and confirm the expansion path. Trader positioning aligns with these fundamentals, pricing in continued positive real GDP growth rather than contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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