Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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