Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2.0–2.8% real U.S. GDP growth for 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains that have offset slower labor-market momentum and energy-price pressures. The latest Q2 2026 reading of +1.5% annualized, while moderating, remains positive, and leading indicators such as business fixed investment continue to signal expansion rather than contraction. This data backdrop underpins the 98% market-implied probability that annual GDP growth will avoid negative territory, reflecting traders’ capital-backed assessment that recession risks remain contained. Potential tail risks include a major escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or an unexpectedly aggressive monetary-policy tightening that could tip the economy into outright contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2.0–2.8% real U.S. GDP growth for 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains that have offset slower labor-market momentum and energy-price pressures. The latest Q2 2026 reading of +1.5% annualized, while moderating, remains positive, and leading indicators such as business fixed investment continue to signal expansion rather than contraction. This data backdrop underpins the 98% market-implied probability that annual GDP growth will avoid negative territory, reflecting traders’ capital-backed assessment that recession risks remain contained. Potential tail risks include a major escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or an unexpectedly aggressive monetary-policy tightening that could tip the economy into outright contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2.0–2.8% real U.S. GDP growth for 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains that have offset slower labor-market momentum and energy-price pressures. The latest Q2 2026 reading of +1.5% annualized, while moderating, remains positive, and leading indicators such as business fixed investment continue to signal expansion rather than contraction. This data backdrop underpins the 98% market-implied probability that annual GDP growth will avoid negative territory, reflecting traders’ capital-backed assessment that recession risks remain contained. Potential tail risks include a major escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or an unexpectedly aggressive monetary-policy tightening that could tip the economy into outright contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2.0–2.8% real U.S. GDP growth for 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and productivity gains that have offset slower labor-market momentum and energy-price pressures. The latest Q2 2026 reading of +1.5% annualized, while moderating, remains positive, and leading indicators such as business fixed investment continue to signal expansion rather than contraction. This data backdrop underpins the 98% market-implied probability that annual GDP growth will avoid negative territory, reflecting traders’ capital-backed assessment that recession risks remain contained. Potential tail risks include a major escalation in geopolitical energy shocks or an unexpectedly aggressive monetary-policy tightening that could tip the economy into outright contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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