Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$27,739 ปริมาณ
$27,739 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,739วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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