Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว


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