Polymarket traders assign a 93% market-implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus backed by resilient economic indicators and forecaster medians around 2% annual expansion. The Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections pegs Q4/Q4 real GDP growth at 2.4%, supported by Q4 2025's revised +0.5% annualized pace, Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast of 1.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% amid rebounding job gains. Despite March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks, core inflation holds at 2.6%. Realistic challenges include prolonged inflation pressures or a Q1 GDP miss ahead of the April 30 advance estimate, potentially signaling deceleration if consumer spending falters.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$21,296 ปริมาณ
$21,296 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$21,296 ปริมาณ
$21,296 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 93% market-implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus backed by resilient economic indicators and forecaster medians around 2% annual expansion. The Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections pegs Q4/Q4 real GDP growth at 2.4%, supported by Q4 2025's revised +0.5% annualized pace, Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast of 1.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% amid rebounding job gains. Despite March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks, core inflation holds at 2.6%. Realistic challenges include prolonged inflation pressures or a Q1 GDP miss ahead of the April 30 advance estimate, potentially signaling deceleration if consumer spending falters.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,296วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 93% market-implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus backed by resilient economic indicators and forecaster medians around 2% annual expansion. The Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections pegs Q4/Q4 real GDP growth at 2.4%, supported by Q4 2025's revised +0.5% annualized pace, Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast of 1.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% amid rebounding job gains. Despite March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks, core inflation holds at 2.6%. Realistic challenges include prolonged inflation pressures or a Q1 GDP miss ahead of the April 30 advance estimate, potentially signaling deceleration if consumer spending falters.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,296วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 93% market-implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus backed by resilient economic indicators and forecaster medians around 2% annual expansion. The Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections pegs Q4/Q4 real GDP growth at 2.4%, supported by Q4 2025's revised +0.5% annualized pace, Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast of 1.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% amid rebounding job gains. Despite March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks, core inflation holds at 2.6%. Realistic challenges include prolonged inflation pressures or a Q1 GDP miss ahead of the April 30 advance estimate, potentially signaling deceleration if consumer spending falters.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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