Farage's decision to resign his Clacton seat in early July 2026 and trigger a by-election for re-election on 13 August has consolidated Reform UK support in a constituency he won with 46% in 2024. Major parties opted not to contest after labeling the move a "fake" exercise amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances, leaving him facing 33 mostly fringe or novelty candidates. This absence of organized opposition, combined with Reform's established local base and fragmented minor-party votes, underpins trader consensus around a 70–80% share as the most probable outcome. National polling has shown mixed public views on the by-election itself, yet local dynamics favor a decisive Reform result without significant vote splitting from established challengers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarage 70–80% 47.7%
Farage 60–70% 31%
Farage 80%+ 12%
Farage 50–60% 9%
$113,106 ปริมาณ
$113,106 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
1%
Farage 40–50%
3%
Farage 50–60%
9%
Farage 60–70%
31%
Farage 70–80%
48%
Farage 80%+
12%
Farage 70–80% 47.7%
Farage 60–70% 31%
Farage 80%+ 12%
Farage 50–60% 9%
$113,106 ปริมาณ
$113,106 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$8,507 ปริมาณ
1%
Farage 40–50%
$8,003 ปริมาณ
3%
Farage 50–60%
$12,886 ปริมาณ
9%
Farage 60–70%
$18,980 ปริมาณ
31%
Farage 70–80%
$31,781 ปริมาณ
48%
Farage 80%+
$32,949 ปริมาณ
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's decision to resign his Clacton seat in early July 2026 and trigger a by-election for re-election on 13 August has consolidated Reform UK support in a constituency he won with 46% in 2024. Major parties opted not to contest after labeling the move a "fake" exercise amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances, leaving him facing 33 mostly fringe or novelty candidates. This absence of organized opposition, combined with Reform's established local base and fragmented minor-party votes, underpins trader consensus around a 70–80% share as the most probable outcome. National polling has shown mixed public views on the by-election itself, yet local dynamics favor a decisive Reform result without significant vote splitting from established challengers.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$113,106วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's decision to resign his Clacton seat in early July 2026 and trigger a by-election for re-election on 13 August has consolidated Reform UK support in a constituency he won with 46% in 2024. Major parties opted not to contest after labeling the move a "fake" exercise amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances, leaving him facing 33 mostly fringe or novelty candidates. This absence of organized opposition, combined with Reform's established local base and fragmented minor-party votes, underpins trader consensus around a 70–80% share as the most probable outcome. National polling has shown mixed public views on the by-election itself, yet local dynamics favor a decisive Reform result without significant vote splitting from established challengers.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$113,106วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage's decision to resign his Clacton seat in early July 2026 and trigger a by-election for re-election on 13 August has consolidated Reform UK support in a constituency he won with 46% in 2024. Major parties opted not to contest after labeling the move a "fake" exercise amid parliamentary scrutiny of his finances, leaving him facing 33 mostly fringe or novelty candidates. This absence of organized opposition, combined with Reform's established local base and fragmented minor-party votes, underpins trader consensus around a 70–80% share as the most probable outcome. National polling has shown mixed public views on the by-election itself, yet local dynamics favor a decisive Reform result without significant vote splitting from established challengers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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