Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting leaks that the codenamed "Spud" large language model completed pretraining in late March 2026 and post-training safety evaluations shortly after Sam Altman's "few weeks" hint. This positions it as a natively multimodal, agentic upgrade amid intensifying competition from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch earlier this week, prompting expectations of a rapid counter-deployment per historical patterns. Recent leadership shakeup—including COO Brad Lightcap's transition to special projects and executive health-related steps back—has tempered enthusiasm, elevating "No release by April 30" to 5.7% as traders price in potential rollout delays ahead of this critical frontier model benchmark reveal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วApril 23 82%
No release by April 30 6.7%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$132,313 ปริมาณ
$132,313 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
<1%
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
1%
April 21
3%
April 22
1%
April 23
82%
April 24
2%
April 25
<1%
April 26
2%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
1%
April 30
4%
No release by April 30
7%
April 23 82%
No release by April 30 6.7%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$132,313 ปริมาณ
$132,313 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
$3,969 ปริมาณ
<1%
April 18
$2,130 ปริมาณ
<1%
April 19
$2,771 ปริมาณ
<1%
April 20
$2,376 ปริมาณ
1%
April 21
$3,458 ปริมาณ
3%
April 22
$5,014 ปริมาณ
1%
April 23
$27,585 ปริมาณ
82%
April 24
$2,686 ปริมาณ
2%
April 25
$1,713 ปริมาณ
<1%
April 26
$2,060 ปริมาณ
2%
April 27
$2,333 ปริมาณ
2%
April 28
$2,819 ปริมาณ
2%
April 29
$2,651 ปริมาณ
1%
April 30
$4,237 ปริมาณ
4%
No release by April 30
$7,209 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting leaks that the codenamed "Spud" large language model completed pretraining in late March 2026 and post-training safety evaluations shortly after Sam Altman's "few weeks" hint. This positions it as a natively multimodal, agentic upgrade amid intensifying competition from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch earlier this week, prompting expectations of a rapid counter-deployment per historical patterns. Recent leadership shakeup—including COO Brad Lightcap's transition to special projects and executive health-related steps back—has tempered enthusiasm, elevating "No release by April 30" to 5.7% as traders price in potential rollout delays ahead of this critical frontier model benchmark reveal.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$132,313วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting leaks that the codenamed "Spud" large language model completed pretraining in late March 2026 and post-training safety evaluations shortly after Sam Altman's "few weeks" hint. This positions it as a natively multimodal, agentic upgrade amid intensifying competition from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch earlier this week, prompting expectations of a rapid counter-deployment per historical patterns. Recent leadership shakeup—including COO Brad Lightcap's transition to special projects and executive health-related steps back—has tempered enthusiasm, elevating "No release by April 30" to 5.7% as traders price in potential rollout delays ahead of this critical frontier model benchmark reveal.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$132,313วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting leaks that the codenamed "Spud" large language model completed pretraining in late March 2026 and post-training safety evaluations shortly after Sam Altman's "few weeks" hint. This positions it as a natively multimodal, agentic upgrade amid intensifying competition from Anthropic's Opus 4.7 launch earlier this week, prompting expectations of a rapid counter-deployment per historical patterns. Recent leadership shakeup—including COO Brad Lightcap's transition to special projects and executive health-related steps back—has tempered enthusiasm, elevating "No release by April 30" to 5.7% as traders price in potential rollout delays ahead of this critical frontier model benchmark reveal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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