Traders see roughly even odds on a 39–41°C peak for Chongqing on July 15 because short-range models diverge on how long the current heatwave will sustain extreme highs. The city recorded its first 40°C day of 2026 on July 10 amid a broad subtropical ridge, with official readings reaching 41°C shortly afterward; persistence of this pattern through mid-month under weak steering flow and high surface humidity favors another 40–41°C day. Countervailing signals include some ensemble runs showing modest cooling from increased cloud cover or a weak frontal passage around the 14th–15th, which could cap the daily maximum near 37–39°C. Chongqing’s urban heat-island effect and topographic sheltering amplify daytime maxima relative to regional averages, yet day-to-day variability remains high this close to the target date, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 39–41°C outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chongqing on July 15?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 15?
40°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$71,150 ปริมาณ
$71,150 ปริมาณ
Jul 15, 2026
34°C or below
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
Yes
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C or higher
No
40°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$71,150 ปริมาณ
$71,150 ปริมาณ
Jul 15, 2026
34°C or below
$4,674 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$1,912 ปริมาณ
No
36°C
$2,294 ปริมาณ
No
37°C
$5,773 ปริมาณ
No
38°C
$7,800 ปริมาณ
No
39°C
$8,021 ปริมาณ
No
40°C
$12,596 ปริมาณ
Yes
41°C
$9,231 ปริมาณ
No
42°C
$7,467 ปริมาณ
No
43°C
$5,923 ปริมาณ
No
44°C or higher
$5,458 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see roughly even odds on a 39–41°C peak for Chongqing on July 15 because short-range models diverge on how long the current heatwave will sustain extreme highs. The city recorded its first 40°C day of 2026 on July 10 amid a broad subtropical ridge, with official readings reaching 41°C shortly afterward; persistence of this pattern through mid-month under weak steering flow and high surface humidity favors another 40–41°C day. Countervailing signals include some ensemble runs showing modest cooling from increased cloud cover or a weak frontal passage around the 14th–15th, which could cap the daily maximum near 37–39°C. Chongqing’s urban heat-island effect and topographic sheltering amplify daytime maxima relative to regional averages, yet day-to-day variability remains high this close to the target date, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 39–41°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,150วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see roughly even odds on a 39–41°C peak for Chongqing on July 15 because short-range models diverge on how long the current heatwave will sustain extreme highs. The city recorded its first 40°C day of 2026 on July 10 amid a broad subtropical ridge, with official readings reaching 41°C shortly afterward; persistence of this pattern through mid-month under weak steering flow and high surface humidity favors another 40–41°C day. Countervailing signals include some ensemble runs showing modest cooling from increased cloud cover or a weak frontal passage around the 14th–15th, which could cap the daily maximum near 37–39°C. Chongqing’s urban heat-island effect and topographic sheltering amplify daytime maxima relative to regional averages, yet day-to-day variability remains high this close to the target date, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 39–41°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,150วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Traders see roughly even odds on a 39–41°C peak for Chongqing on July 15 because short-range models diverge on how long the current heatwave will sustain extreme highs. The city recorded its first 40°C day of 2026 on July 10 amid a broad subtropical ridge, with official readings reaching 41°C shortly afterward; persistence of this pattern through mid-month under weak steering flow and high surface humidity favors another 40–41°C day. Countervailing signals include some ensemble runs showing modest cooling from increased cloud cover or a weak frontal passage around the 14th–15th, which could cap the daily maximum near 37–39°C. Chongqing’s urban heat-island effect and topographic sheltering amplify daytime maxima relative to regional averages, yet day-to-day variability remains high this close to the target date, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around the 39–41°C outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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