Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 29?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 29?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,635 ปริมาณ
$78,635 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,635 ปริมาณ
$78,635 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
16°C or below
$904 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$807 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$677 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$2,575 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$3,749 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$4,076 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$6,313 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$5,592 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$34,712 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$8,884 ปริมาณ
No
26°C or higher
$10,347 ปริมาณ
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,635วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,635วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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