Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 ปริมาณ
$394,575 ปริมาณ
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 ปริมาณ
$394,575 ปริมาณ
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
$5,363 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$3,304 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$5,056 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$6,052 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$15,635 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$24,465 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$33,167 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$92,132 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$107,145 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$51,272 ปริมาณ
No
29°C or higher
$50,983 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$394,575วันสิ้นสุด
May 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$394,575วันสิ้นสุด
May 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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