**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 13?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,862 ปริมาณ
$36,862 ปริมาณ
Jun 13, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,862 ปริมาณ
$36,862 ปริมาณ
Jun 13, 2026
14°C or below
$590 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$669 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$698 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$1,664 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$8,174 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$4,788 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$7,875 ปริมาณ
Yes
21°C
$2,492 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$2,170 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$2,912 ปริมาณ
No
24°C or higher
$4,832 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,862วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,862วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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