Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 ปริมาณ
$105,539 ปริมาณ
May 7, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 ปริมาณ
$105,539 ปริมาณ
May 7, 2026
27°C or below
$20,602 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$25,700 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$9,049 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$3,049 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$13,698 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$2,192 ปริมาณ
No
33°C
$10,038 ปริมาณ
Yes
34°C
$9,292 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$4,180 ปริมาณ
No
36°C
$4,362 ปริมาณ
No
37°C or higher
$3,377 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$105,539วันสิ้นสุด
May 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$105,539วันสิ้นสุด
May 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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