**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels. Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Seoul on July 19?
Highest temperature in Seoul on July 19?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$255,922 ปริมาณ
$255,922 ปริมาณ
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$255,922 ปริมาณ
$255,922 ปริมาณ
Jul 19, 2026
21°C or below
$503 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$375 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$1,067 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$11,808 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$12,898 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$96,870 ปริมาณ
Yes
27°C
$42,456 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$12,734 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$16,540 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$20,671 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$40,000 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels.
Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$255,922วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels.
Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$255,922วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels. Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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