Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 ปริมาณ
$58,535 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 ปริมาณ
$58,535 ปริมาณ
May 12, 2026
23°C or below
$2,316 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$1,381 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$2,065 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$2,286 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$3,220 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$5,157 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$19,130 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$7,915 ปริมาณ
Yes
31°C
$4,856 ปริมาณ
No
32°C
$5,698 ปริมาณ
No
33°C or higher
$4,512 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,535วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,535วันสิ้นสุด
May 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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