Tropical Storm Saudel, currently packing 40-50 mph winds with a central pressure near 987 hPa east of the Northern Mariana Islands, is positioned for rapid intensification. Warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high oceanic heat content support explosive strengthening over the next 48-72 hours, with multiple models and JMA guidance projecting peak intensity near 90 kt and 940 hPa by August 23. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward very strong or violent typhoon outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates and satellite intensity estimates, which could shift probabilities if steering currents or environmental changes alter the track or limit further growth.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Violent Typhoon 44%
Severe Tropical Storm 5.0%
Typhoon 2.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
1%
Severe Tropical Storm
5%
Typhoon
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
55%
Violent Typhoon
44%
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Violent Typhoon 44%
Severe Tropical Storm 5.0%
Typhoon 2.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$402 ปริมาณ
1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$196 ปริมาณ
5%
Typhoon
$384 ปริมาณ
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
$328 ปริมาณ
55%
Violent Typhoon
$465 ปริมาณ
44%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently packing 40-50 mph winds with a central pressure near 987 hPa east of the Northern Mariana Islands, is positioned for rapid intensification. Warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high oceanic heat content support explosive strengthening over the next 48-72 hours, with multiple models and JMA guidance projecting peak intensity near 90 kt and 940 hPa by August 23. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward very strong or violent typhoon outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates and satellite intensity estimates, which could shift probabilities if steering currents or environmental changes alter the track or limit further growth.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,775วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently packing 40-50 mph winds with a central pressure near 987 hPa east of the Northern Mariana Islands, is positioned for rapid intensification. Warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high oceanic heat content support explosive strengthening over the next 48-72 hours, with multiple models and JMA guidance projecting peak intensity near 90 kt and 940 hPa by August 23. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward very strong or violent typhoon outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates and satellite intensity estimates, which could shift probabilities if steering currents or environmental changes alter the track or limit further growth.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,775วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tropical Storm Saudel, currently packing 40-50 mph winds with a central pressure near 987 hPa east of the Northern Mariana Islands, is positioned for rapid intensification. Warm sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high oceanic heat content support explosive strengthening over the next 48-72 hours, with multiple models and JMA guidance projecting peak intensity near 90 kt and 940 hPa by August 23. These conditions explain the market’s heavy weighting toward very strong or violent typhoon outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next official forecast updates and satellite intensity estimates, which could shift probabilities if steering currents or environmental changes alter the track or limit further growth.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย