The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire in early April 2026, brokered by Pakistan and later extended indefinitely by President Trump to allow further talks on nuclear issues, sanctions, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include Trump’s May 18 postponement of a planned U.S. strike following requests from Gulf states, alongside reports of a new Iranian proposal and positive signals in ongoing negotiations. The truce has faced repeated strains from limited exchanges of fire, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and mutual accusations of violations, yet both sides continue diplomatic engagement through intermediaries. Scheduled talks and any escalation in the Persian Gulf remain key factors that could determine whether the ceasefire holds through coming weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
$178,443 ปริมาณ
May 20
97%
May 21
92%
May 22
80%
May 24
68%
May 27
61%
May 31
51%
June 7
40%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$178,443 ปริมาณ
May 20
$45,733 ปริมาณ
97%
May 21
$50,965 ปริมาณ
92%
May 22
$26,474 ปริมาณ
80%
May 24
$15,444 ปริมาณ
68%
May 27
$12,169 ปริมาณ
61%
May 31
$5,518 ปริมาณ
51%
June 7
$3,600 ปริมาณ
40%
June 15
$3,713 ปริมาณ
37%
June 30
$1,876 ปริมาณ
34%
July 31
$6,156 ปริมาณ
30%
December 31
$6,879 ปริมาณ
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire in early April 2026, brokered by Pakistan and later extended indefinitely by President Trump to allow further talks on nuclear issues, sanctions, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include Trump’s May 18 postponement of a planned U.S. strike following requests from Gulf states, alongside reports of a new Iranian proposal and positive signals in ongoing negotiations. The truce has faced repeated strains from limited exchanges of fire, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and mutual accusations of violations, yet both sides continue diplomatic engagement through intermediaries. Scheduled talks and any escalation in the Persian Gulf remain key factors that could determine whether the ceasefire holds through coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$178,443ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire in early April 2026, brokered by Pakistan and later extended indefinitely by President Trump to allow further talks on nuclear issues, sanctions, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include Trump’s May 18 postponement of a planned U.S. strike following requests from Gulf states, alongside reports of a new Iranian proposal and positive signals in ongoing negotiations. The truce has faced repeated strains from limited exchanges of fire, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and mutual accusations of violations, yet both sides continue diplomatic engagement through intermediaries. Scheduled talks and any escalation in the Persian Gulf remain key factors that could determine whether the ceasefire holds through coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$178,443ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire in early April 2026, brokered by Pakistan and later extended indefinitely by President Trump to allow further talks on nuclear issues, sanctions, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include Trump’s May 18 postponement of a planned U.S. strike following requests from Gulf states, alongside reports of a new Iranian proposal and positive signals in ongoing negotiations. The truce has faced repeated strains from limited exchanges of fire, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and mutual accusations of violations, yet both sides continue diplomatic engagement through intermediaries. Scheduled talks and any escalation in the Persian Gulf remain key factors that could determine whether the ceasefire holds through coming weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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