Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader sentiment on this market, amid an active 2026 conflict phase that includes multiple confirmed attacks on tankers and merchant ships in June and July. US retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian missile facilities, radars, and Revolutionary Guard assets have followed these incidents, contributing to reduced shipping traffic and intermittent pauses in direct attacks since July 20. Iranian statements continue to emphasize enforcement of approved transit routes and warnings against alternatives, while Houthi actions in the Red Sea add parallel pressure on regional energy flows. Key upcoming factors include any resumption of US air operations, reported diplomatic talks with Oman or others on strait management, and potential shifts in naval activity that could enable or deter further successful targeting of vessels before resolution windows close.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$1,148,653 ปริมาณ
Jul 30, 2026
July 30
2%
July 31
48%
$1,148,653 ปริมาณ
July 30
$770 ปริมาณ
2%
July 31
$9,513 ปริมาณ
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader sentiment on this market, amid an active 2026 conflict phase that includes multiple confirmed attacks on tankers and merchant ships in June and July. US retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian missile facilities, radars, and Revolutionary Guard assets have followed these incidents, contributing to reduced shipping traffic and intermittent pauses in direct attacks since July 20. Iranian statements continue to emphasize enforcement of approved transit routes and warnings against alternatives, while Houthi actions in the Red Sea add parallel pressure on regional energy flows. Key upcoming factors include any resumption of US air operations, reported diplomatic talks with Oman or others on strait management, and potential shifts in naval activity that could enable or deter further successful targeting of vessels before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 18, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,148,653วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 18, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ช่วงเวลาคัดค้าน
สิ้นสุด
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader sentiment on this market, amid an active 2026 conflict phase that includes multiple confirmed attacks on tankers and merchant ships in June and July. US retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian missile facilities, radars, and Revolutionary Guard assets have followed these incidents, contributing to reduced shipping traffic and intermittent pauses in direct attacks since July 20. Iranian statements continue to emphasize enforcement of approved transit routes and warnings against alternatives, while Houthi actions in the Red Sea add parallel pressure on regional energy flows. Key upcoming factors include any resumption of US air operations, reported diplomatic talks with Oman or others on strait management, and potential shifts in naval activity that could enable or deter further successful targeting of vessels before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,148,653วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 18, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ช่วงเวลาคัดค้าน
สิ้นสุด
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on commercial vessels remain the central driver of trader sentiment on this market, amid an active 2026 conflict phase that includes multiple confirmed attacks on tankers and merchant ships in June and July. US retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian missile facilities, radars, and Revolutionary Guard assets have followed these incidents, contributing to reduced shipping traffic and intermittent pauses in direct attacks since July 20. Iranian statements continue to emphasize enforcement of approved transit routes and warnings against alternatives, while Houthi actions in the Red Sea add parallel pressure on regional energy flows. Key upcoming factors include any resumption of US air operations, reported diplomatic talks with Oman or others on strait management, and potential shifts in naval activity that could enable or deter further successful targeting of vessels before resolution windows close.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย