In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการดำเนินการทางทหารของอิหร่านต่อ ___ ภายในวันที่ 30 เมษายน?
การดำเนินการทางทหารของอิหร่านต่อ ___ ภายในวันที่ 30 เมษายน?
$5,846,810 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
อิสราเอล
ใช่
จอร์แดน
ใช่
ซาอุดีอาระเบีย
ใช่
บาห์เรน
ใช่
สหรัฐอาหรับเอมิเรตส์
ใช่
คูเวต
ใช่
ตุรกี
ไม่
ไซปรัส
ไม่
กาตาร์
ไม่
อิรัก
ใช่
อัฟกานิสถาน
ไม่
ปากีสถาน
ไม่
เยเมน
ไม่
โอมาน
ไม่
ซีเรีย
ไม่
เลบานอน
ไม่
อินเดีย
ไม่
สเปน
ไม่
ฝรั่งเศส
ไม่
เยอรมนี
ไม่
โปแลนด์
ไม่
อิตาลี
ไม่
ฮังการี
ไม่
ยูเครน
ไม่
อาเซอร์ไบจาน
ไม่
อาร์เมเนีย
ไม่
จอร์เจีย
ไม่
สหราชอาณาจักร
ไม่
ซาอุดีอาระเบีย
ใช่
จอร์แดน
ไม่
บาห์เรน
ไม่
คูเวต
ใช่
$5,846,810 ปริมาณ
อิสราเอล
$16,598 ปริมาณ
ใช่
จอร์แดน
$11,957 ปริมาณ
ใช่
ซาอุดีอาระเบีย
$41,566 ปริมาณ
ใช่
บาห์เรน
$204,021 ปริมาณ
ใช่
สหรัฐอาหรับเอมิเรตส์
$112,616 ปริมาณ
ใช่
คูเวต
$14,518 ปริมาณ
ใช่
ตุรกี
$45,186 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ไซปรัส
$29,238 ปริมาณ
ไม่
กาตาร์
$262,965 ปริมาณ
ไม่
อิรัก
$2,113,422 ปริมาณ
ใช่
อัฟกานิสถาน
$12,182 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ปากีสถาน
$54,474 ปริมาณ
ไม่
เยเมน
$21,664 ปริมาณ
ไม่
โอมาน
$112,170 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ซีเรีย
$28,090 ปริมาณ
ไม่
เลบานอน
$65,843 ปริมาณ
ไม่
อินเดีย
$30,302 ปริมาณ
ไม่
สเปน
$11,385 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ฝรั่งเศส
$50,991 ปริมาณ
ไม่
เยอรมนี
$22,889 ปริมาณ
ไม่
โปแลนด์
$40,238 ปริมาณ
ไม่
อิตาลี
$4,107 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ฮังการี
$26,172 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ยูเครน
$16,197 ปริมาณ
ไม่
อาเซอร์ไบจาน
$109,980 ปริมาณ
ไม่
อาร์เมเนีย
$11,913 ปริมาณ
ไม่
จอร์เจีย
$18,231 ปริมาณ
ไม่
สหราชอาณาจักร
$31,836 ปริมาณ
ไม่
ซาอุดีอาระเบีย
$13,021 ปริมาณ
ใช่
จอร์แดน
$79,392 ปริมาณ
ไม่
บาห์เรน
$1,194,234 ปริมาณ
ไม่
คูเวต
$1,039,409 ปริมาณ
ใช่
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,846,810วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: ใช่
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: ใช่
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,846,810วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: ใช่
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: ใช่
In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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