Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on April 28?
Lowest temperature in NYC on April 28?
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 ปริมาณ
$28,173 ปริมาณ
Apr 28, 2026
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
No
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 ปริมาณ
$28,173 ปริมาณ
Apr 28, 2026
39°F or below
$1,194 ปริมาณ
No
40-41°F
$905 ปริมาณ
No
42-43°F
$1,585 ปริมาณ
No
44-45°F
$1,773 ปริมาณ
No
46-47°F
$8,679 ปริมาณ
No
48-49°F
$1,704 ปริมาณ
No
50-51°F
$3,217 ปริมาณ
Yes
52-53°F
$2,483 ปริมาณ
No
54-55°F
$988 ปริมาณ
No
56-57°F
$508 ปริมาณ
No
58°F or higher
$5,137 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,173วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,173วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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