Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on July 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 17?
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$14,100 ปริมาณ
$14,100 ปริมาณ
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$14,100 ปริมาณ
$14,100 ปริมาณ
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
$1,284 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$978 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$1,573 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$2,457 ปริมาณ
Yes
19°C
$1,919 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$2,810 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$749 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$662 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$553 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$578 ปริมาณ
No
25°C or higher
$537 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,100วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,100วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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