Traders see a 94.9% implied probability that Elon Musk remains Tesla CEO through 2026 because recent compensation structures, including the 2025 performance award and implementation agreement, tie substantial equity vesting to his continued service as CEO or product executive through at least January 2028. Musk also holds significant voting control through super-voting shares, while the board chair has denied any active successor search and Musk has refocused on Tesla’s AI initiatives after scaling back government work. The company’s heavy 2026 capital spending on Full Self-Driving software, Cybercab robotaxi production, and Optimus robotics further centers his leadership. A sudden health event, major governance shift, or sharp operational failure could still alter this consensus before year-end.