Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOctober 15 26%
October 30 24%
October 22 23%
October 27 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
16%
October 2
23%
October 3
12%
October 4
7%
October 5
19%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
14%
October 9
13%
October 10
7%
October 11
12%
October 12
7%
October 13
23%
October 14
14%
October 15
26%
October 16
8%
October 17
13%
October 18
13%
October 19
14%
October 20
13%
October 21
13%
October 22
23%
October 23
7%
October 24
23%
October 25
13%
October 26
14%
October 27
23%
October 28
7%
October 29
14%
October 30
24%
October 31
14%
No release by October 31
14%
October 15 26%
October 30 24%
October 22 23%
October 27 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$24 ปริมาณ
16%
October 2
$24 ปริมาณ
23%
October 3
$24 ปริมาณ
12%
October 4
$24 ปริมาณ
7%
October 5
$24 ปริมาณ
19%
October 6
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 7
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 8
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 9
$29 ปริมาณ
13%
October 10
$24 ปริมาณ
7%
October 11
$24 ปริมาณ
12%
October 12
$24 ปริมาณ
7%
October 13
$24 ปริมาณ
23%
October 14
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 15
$24 ปริมาณ
26%
October 16
$24 ปริมาณ
8%
October 17
$24 ปริมาณ
13%
October 18
$24 ปริมาณ
13%
October 19
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 20
$24 ปริมาณ
13%
October 21
$24 ปริมาณ
13%
October 22
$24 ปริมาณ
23%
October 23
$24 ปริมาณ
7%
October 24
$24 ปริมาณ
23%
October 25
$24 ปริมาณ
13%
October 26
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 27
$24 ปริมาณ
23%
October 28
$24 ปริมาณ
7%
October 29
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
October 30
$24 ปริมาณ
24%
October 31
$32 ปริมาณ
14%
No release by October 31
$24 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$787วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$787วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid iteration cadence on the Muse Spark family—following 1.3's September 2 launch with gains in long-horizon coding and agentic benchmarks—drives the clustered October odds for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh historical patterns of roughly four-week cycles between versions against Meta Superintelligence Labs' roadmap for larger models, efficiency improvements, and eventual open-weight drops, while noting that safety testing, competitive pressure from Gemini and GPT variants, and internal scaling can shift exact timing. The even spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty in final training runs and deployment readiness, with early-month probabilities tempered by the short window since 1.3 and the low 8% chance of no release by month-end highlighting strong expectations for continued momentum in Meta's AI push.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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