Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 86.5% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his first-round lead of 48.8% to Al Green's 43% in the March 3 contest amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents—Menefee via a recent special election victory—against each other. Recent UH Hobby School and NYT polling averages show Menefee ahead by six points (41-35%), bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising where his campaign raised $1 million, including $600,000 post-primary, outpacing Green despite the latter's self-loan. Green's criticisms of Menefee's missed votes have not shifted momentum, leaving challengers Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown as negligible at 0.3% each after weak primary showings. Early voting and turnout in this Houston battleground will be pivotal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วChristian Menefee 85.3%
Al Green 13.0%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$22,953 ปริมาณ
$22,953 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
85%
Al Green
12%
Amanda Edwards
1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Christian Menefee 85.3%
Al Green 13.0%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$22,953 ปริมาณ
$22,953 ปริมาณ
Christian Menefee
85%
Al Green
12%
Amanda Edwards
1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Christian Menefee at 86.5% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his first-round lead of 48.8% to Al Green's 43% in the March 3 contest amid redistricting that pitted the two incumbents—Menefee via a recent special election victory—against each other. Recent UH Hobby School and NYT polling averages show Menefee ahead by six points (41-35%), bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising where his campaign raised $1 million, including $600,000 post-primary, outpacing Green despite the latter's self-loan. Green's criticisms of Menefee's missed votes have not shifted momentum, leaving challengers Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown as negligible at 0.3% each after weak primary showings. Early voting and turnout in this Houston battleground will be pivotal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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