Jon Bonck's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff stems from his dominant first-place finish in the March 3 primary, capturing nearly 30 points more than challenger Shelly deZevallos among a crowded 10-candidate field to replace Rep. Wesley Hunt, who vacated for a Senate bid. Key drivers include President Trump's pre-primary endorsement, Club for Growth PAC backing, and a reported $1 million war chest enabling superior advertising in the Houston-area district. With the May 26 runoff approaching, traders see little momentum shift despite deZevallos's second-place consolidation potential; realistic challenges could arise from late-breaking scandals, deZevallos securing rival endorsements, or depressed turnout favoring her base in this GOP stronghold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTX-38 Republican Primary Winner
TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Jon Bonck 90.5%
Shelly deZevallos 2.1%
Barrett McNabb 1.1%
Jennifer Sundt 1.1%
$36,077 ปริมาณ
$36,077 ปริมาณ
Jon Bonck
91%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Barrett McNabb
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Larry Rubin
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
1%
Jon Bonck 90.5%
Shelly deZevallos 2.1%
Barrett McNabb 1.1%
Jennifer Sundt 1.1%
$36,077 ปริมาณ
$36,077 ปริมาณ
Jon Bonck
91%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Barrett McNabb
1%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Larry Rubin
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Jeff Yuna
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary runoff stems from his dominant first-place finish in the March 3 primary, capturing nearly 30 points more than challenger Shelly deZevallos among a crowded 10-candidate field to replace Rep. Wesley Hunt, who vacated for a Senate bid. Key drivers include President Trump's pre-primary endorsement, Club for Growth PAC backing, and a reported $1 million war chest enabling superior advertising in the Houston-area district. With the May 26 runoff approaching, traders see little momentum shift despite deZevallos's second-place consolidation potential; realistic challenges could arise from late-breaking scandals, deZevallos securing rival endorsements, or depressed turnout favoring her base in this GOP stronghold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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