US midterm elections occur every two years under fixed constitutional and statutory rules that set the date for the House and one-third of the Senate. No legislative action, executive order, or court ruling has altered this schedule, and no major political crisis or national emergency has emerged to prompt delay discussions. Trader consensus reflects this structural certainty, reinforced by decades of uninterrupted precedent even during wartime or economic turmoil. Remaining uncertainty stems from low-probability tail risks such as a declared national emergency disrupting voting infrastructure, successful constitutional challenges to state-level administration, or unforeseen congressional intervention before November. These scenarios would require coordinated action across multiple branches and face significant legal and political barriers.