Recent polling across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and RedBridge surveys shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a clear lead on two-party preferred margins of 51-55% over Labor, driven by sustained primary support in the mid-to-high 20s while Labor remains mired in the low-to-mid 20s. The July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable recovery for Labor, with primary votes slipping further in August fieldwork amid ongoing voter concerns over state debt, integrity issues, and continuity of prior government challenges. One Nation’s primary vote has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s under new state leader Warren Pickering, yet indicative preference flows heavily favor the Coalition in seat-level contests. With the November 28 election three months away, these patterns position the Coalition as the frontrunner in trader assessments of the most likely winner.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVictoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Liberal–National 61%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
61%
Labor
18%
One Nation
10%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 61%
Labor 31%
One Nation 10%
Greens <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$1,439 ปริมาณ
61%
Labor
$341 ปริมาณ
18%
One Nation
$72 ปริมาณ
10%
Greens
$119 ปริมาณ
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and RedBridge surveys shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a clear lead on two-party preferred margins of 51-55% over Labor, driven by sustained primary support in the mid-to-high 20s while Labor remains mired in the low-to-mid 20s. The July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable recovery for Labor, with primary votes slipping further in August fieldwork amid ongoing voter concerns over state debt, integrity issues, and continuity of prior government challenges. One Nation’s primary vote has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s under new state leader Warren Pickering, yet indicative preference flows heavily favor the Coalition in seat-level contests. With the November 28 election three months away, these patterns position the Coalition as the frontrunner in trader assessments of the most likely winner.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,970วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and RedBridge surveys shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a clear lead on two-party preferred margins of 51-55% over Labor, driven by sustained primary support in the mid-to-high 20s while Labor remains mired in the low-to-mid 20s. The July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable recovery for Labor, with primary votes slipping further in August fieldwork amid ongoing voter concerns over state debt, integrity issues, and continuity of prior government challenges. One Nation’s primary vote has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s under new state leader Warren Pickering, yet indicative preference flows heavily favor the Coalition in seat-level contests. With the November 28 election three months away, these patterns position the Coalition as the frontrunner in trader assessments of the most likely winner.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,970วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and RedBridge surveys shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a clear lead on two-party preferred margins of 51-55% over Labor, driven by sustained primary support in the mid-to-high 20s while Labor remains mired in the low-to-mid 20s. The July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable recovery for Labor, with primary votes slipping further in August fieldwork amid ongoing voter concerns over state debt, integrity issues, and continuity of prior government challenges. One Nation’s primary vote has climbed into the low-to-mid 20s under new state leader Warren Pickering, yet indicative preference flows heavily favor the Coalition in seat-level contests. With the November 28 election three months away, these patterns position the Coalition as the frontrunner in trader assessments of the most likely winner.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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