Banking sector resilience, evidenced by industry CET1 capital ratios above 12% and only two small U.S. bank failures year-to-date through May 2026, underpins trader consensus that major failures by June 30 remain unlikely. The Federal Reserve’s finalized 2026 stress-test scenarios, released in February and featuring a hypothetical severe recession with sharp commercial real estate price declines, will produce results by June 30 that test capital adequacy but are unlikely to trigger resolutions given post-2023 liquidity enhancements and contained CRE exposures. Recent earnings and deposit trends reinforce asset quality stability, while the market-implied odds reflect the low historical base rate of systemic failures outside acute stress events. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 earnings releases and any last-minute regulatory signals ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$527,238 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
BMO
2%
ธนาคารยูเอส
1%
Scotiabank
1%
Lloyds
1%
Truist
1%
แบงก์ออฟอเมริกา
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
KeyBank
1%
ดอยช์แบงก์
1%
มอร์แกน สแตนลีย์
1%
เวลส์ ฟาร์โก้
1%
RBC
1%
BNY
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
HSBC
1%
UBS
1%
ซิตี้กรุ๊ป
1%
โกลด์แมน แซคส์
1%
ซานทานแดร์
<1%
$527,238 ปริมาณ
BMO
$1,333 ปริมาณ
2%
ธนาคารยูเอส
$1,244 ปริมาณ
1%
Scotiabank
$48,100 ปริมาณ
1%
Lloyds
$675 ปริมาณ
1%
Truist
$223 ปริมาณ
1%
แบงก์ออฟอเมริกา
$770 ปริมาณ
1%
BNP Paribas
$24,135 ปริมาณ
1%
KeyBank
$863 ปริมาณ
1%
ดอยช์แบงก์
$169,274 ปริมาณ
1%
มอร์แกน สแตนลีย์
$607 ปริมาณ
1%
เวลส์ ฟาร์โก้
$1,061 ปริมาณ
1%
RBC
$461 ปริมาณ
1%
BNY
$462 ปริมาณ
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$149,919 ปริมาณ
1%
HSBC
$41,341 ปริมาณ
1%
UBS
$38,652 ปริมาณ
1%
ซิตี้กรุ๊ป
$12,516 ปริมาณ
1%
โกลด์แมน แซคส์
$34,940 ปริมาณ
1%
ซานทานแดร์
$662 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Banking sector resilience, evidenced by industry CET1 capital ratios above 12% and only two small U.S. bank failures year-to-date through May 2026, underpins trader consensus that major failures by June 30 remain unlikely. The Federal Reserve’s finalized 2026 stress-test scenarios, released in February and featuring a hypothetical severe recession with sharp commercial real estate price declines, will produce results by June 30 that test capital adequacy but are unlikely to trigger resolutions given post-2023 liquidity enhancements and contained CRE exposures. Recent earnings and deposit trends reinforce asset quality stability, while the market-implied odds reflect the low historical base rate of systemic failures outside acute stress events. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 earnings releases and any last-minute regulatory signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$527,238วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Banking sector resilience, evidenced by industry CET1 capital ratios above 12% and only two small U.S. bank failures year-to-date through May 2026, underpins trader consensus that major failures by June 30 remain unlikely. The Federal Reserve’s finalized 2026 stress-test scenarios, released in February and featuring a hypothetical severe recession with sharp commercial real estate price declines, will produce results by June 30 that test capital adequacy but are unlikely to trigger resolutions given post-2023 liquidity enhancements and contained CRE exposures. Recent earnings and deposit trends reinforce asset quality stability, while the market-implied odds reflect the low historical base rate of systemic failures outside acute stress events. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 earnings releases and any last-minute regulatory signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$527,238วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Banking sector resilience, evidenced by industry CET1 capital ratios above 12% and only two small U.S. bank failures year-to-date through May 2026, underpins trader consensus that major failures by June 30 remain unlikely. The Federal Reserve’s finalized 2026 stress-test scenarios, released in February and featuring a hypothetical severe recession with sharp commercial real estate price declines, will produce results by June 30 that test capital adequacy but are unlikely to trigger resolutions given post-2023 liquidity enhancements and contained CRE exposures. Recent earnings and deposit trends reinforce asset quality stability, while the market-implied odds reflect the low historical base rate of systemic failures outside acute stress events. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 earnings releases and any last-minute regulatory signals ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย