Trader consensus heavily favors no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, with 95.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential in the basin through at least early May, alongside climatological data showing only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes in over 170 years of records. Current marginal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic, combined with vertical wind shear expected to rise amid a weak La Niña-to-El Niño transition per Colorado State University forecasts, suppress intensification. Recent April outlooks predict a below-normal 2026 season overall. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly organizing if SSTs warm anomalously, with NHC resuming regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 providing key updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$42,767 ปริมาณ
$42,767 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
$42,767 ปริมาณ
$42,767 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus heavily favors no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, with 95.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential in the basin through at least early May, alongside climatological data showing only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes in over 170 years of records. Current marginal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic, combined with vertical wind shear expected to rise amid a weak La Niña-to-El Niño transition per Colorado State University forecasts, suppress intensification. Recent April outlooks predict a below-normal 2026 season overall. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly organizing if SSTs warm anomalously, with NHC resuming regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 providing key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,767วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus heavily favors no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, with 95.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential in the basin through at least early May, alongside climatological data showing only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes in over 170 years of records. Current marginal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic, combined with vertical wind shear expected to rise amid a weak La Niña-to-El Niño transition per Colorado State University forecasts, suppress intensification. Recent April outlooks predict a below-normal 2026 season overall. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly organizing if SSTs warm anomalously, with NHC resuming regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 providing key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,767วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, with 95.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential in the basin through at least early May, alongside climatological data showing only a handful of pre-June 1 hurricanes in over 170 years of records. Current marginal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic, combined with vertical wind shear expected to rise amid a weak La Niña-to-El Niño transition per Colorado State University forecasts, suppress intensification. Recent April outlooks predict a below-normal 2026 season overall. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen African tropical wave rapidly organizing if SSTs warm anomalously, with NHC resuming regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 providing key updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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