Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the historical rarity of events meeting high-impact thresholds, such as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. USGS seismic records indicate 9.0+ events occur fewer than once per decade on average, while major explosive eruptions remain even less frequent over centennial timescales. Mid-2026 monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Institution shows no anomalous clusters in tectonic strain or magma systems that would deviate from baseline rates. Model consensus supports continuation of typical variability rather than outlier scenarios, though updated agency forecasts or new seismic/volcanic indicators before year-end could alter trader positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
$221,382 ปริมาณ
$221,382 ปริมาณ
$221,382 ปริมาณ
$221,382 ปริมาณ
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the historical rarity of events meeting high-impact thresholds, such as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. USGS seismic records indicate 9.0+ events occur fewer than once per decade on average, while major explosive eruptions remain even less frequent over centennial timescales. Mid-2026 monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Institution shows no anomalous clusters in tectonic strain or magma systems that would deviate from baseline rates. Model consensus supports continuation of typical variability rather than outlier scenarios, though updated agency forecasts or new seismic/volcanic indicators before year-end could alter trader positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย