**No** at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any qualifying event: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Seismic records show multiple strong events this year, including 7.2–7.5 doublet quakes in Venezuela and a 7.7 in Indonesia, yet none reached the 8.5 threshold used for market resolution. The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no Category 5 landfalls to date, while volcanic and meteor monitoring agencies report no activity meeting the defined criteria. Global catastrophe data for the first half of 2026 indicate below-average economic losses and fatalities relative to long-term baselines, underscoring the rarity of these extreme thresholds. With four months remaining, traders weigh historical frequencies—such as the infrequent occurrence of 8.5+ quakes or Category 5 U.S. strikes—against ongoing monitoring by USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” elevated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22% โอกาส
$243,350 ปริมาณ
$243,350 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
22% โอกาส
$243,350 ปริมาณ
$243,350 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any qualifying event: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike.
Seismic records show multiple strong events this year, including 7.2–7.5 doublet quakes in Venezuela and a 7.7 in Indonesia, yet none reached the 8.5 threshold used for market resolution. The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no Category 5 landfalls to date, while volcanic and meteor monitoring agencies report no activity meeting the defined criteria. Global catastrophe data for the first half of 2026 indicate below-average economic losses and fatalities relative to long-term baselines, underscoring the rarity of these extreme thresholds. With four months remaining, traders weigh historical frequencies—such as the infrequent occurrence of 8.5+ quakes or Category 5 U.S. strikes—against ongoing monitoring by USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$243,350วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any qualifying event: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike.
Seismic records show multiple strong events this year, including 7.2–7.5 doublet quakes in Venezuela and a 7.7 in Indonesia, yet none reached the 8.5 threshold used for market resolution. The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no Category 5 landfalls to date, while volcanic and meteor monitoring agencies report no activity meeting the defined criteria. Global catastrophe data for the first half of 2026 indicate below-average economic losses and fatalities relative to long-term baselines, underscoring the rarity of these extreme thresholds. With four months remaining, traders weigh historical frequencies—such as the infrequent occurrence of 8.5+ quakes or Category 5 U.S. strikes—against ongoing monitoring by USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$243,350วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**No** at 78.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any qualifying event: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Seismic records show multiple strong events this year, including 7.2–7.5 doublet quakes in Venezuela and a 7.7 in Indonesia, yet none reached the 8.5 threshold used for market resolution. The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no Category 5 landfalls to date, while volcanic and meteor monitoring agencies report no activity meeting the defined criteria. Global catastrophe data for the first half of 2026 indicate below-average economic losses and fatalities relative to long-term baselines, underscoring the rarity of these extreme thresholds. With four months remaining, traders weigh historical frequencies—such as the infrequent occurrence of 8.5+ quakes or Category 5 U.S. strikes—against ongoing monitoring by USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” elevated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย