Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center data, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid quiet conditions through mid-April. No such incidents have materialized: seismic activity remains below M8.5 thresholds globally, no supervolcanoes have stirred, meteors have stayed small, and Atlantic hurricane season has yet to begin on June 1. Historical baselines underscore low odds, with US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade and VEI 6 eruptions decades apart; recent ENSO shift from La Niña to neutral may temper tropical cyclone intensity per NOAA outlooks. Watch upcoming NHC forecasts and USGS monitoring for potential shifts before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$204,566 ปริมาณ
$204,566 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$204,566 ปริมาณ
$204,566 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center data, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid quiet conditions through mid-April. No such incidents have materialized: seismic activity remains below M8.5 thresholds globally, no supervolcanoes have stirred, meteors have stayed small, and Atlantic hurricane season has yet to begin on June 1. Historical baselines underscore low odds, with US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade and VEI 6 eruptions decades apart; recent ENSO shift from La Niña to neutral may temper tropical cyclone intensity per NOAA outlooks. Watch upcoming NHC forecasts and USGS monitoring for potential shifts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$204,566วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center data, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid quiet conditions through mid-April. No such incidents have materialized: seismic activity remains below M8.5 thresholds globally, no supervolcanoes have stirred, meteors have stayed small, and Atlantic hurricane season has yet to begin on June 1. Historical baselines underscore low odds, with US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade and VEI 6 eruptions decades apart; recent ENSO shift from La Niña to neutral may temper tropical cyclone intensity per NOAA outlooks. Watch upcoming NHC forecasts and USGS monitoring for potential shifts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$204,566วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 72.5% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center data, a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst—reflecting the extreme rarity of these events amid quiet conditions through mid-April. No such incidents have materialized: seismic activity remains below M8.5 thresholds globally, no supervolcanoes have stirred, meteors have stayed small, and Atlantic hurricane season has yet to begin on June 1. Historical baselines underscore low odds, with US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade and VEI 6 eruptions decades apart; recent ENSO shift from La Niña to neutral may temper tropical cyclone intensity per NOAA outlooks. Watch upcoming NHC forecasts and USGS monitoring for potential shifts before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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