Current global surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows no novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission that meets criteria for a pandemic declaration in 2026. Regional outbreaks of Ebola Bundibugyo virus, measles clusters, dengue, and hantavirus remain geographically contained without evidence of exponential international spread, while COVID-19 reproductive numbers trend below 1.0 in most U.S. states. Ongoing monitoring of H5N1 avian influenza and other zoonotic threats has not identified escalation to pandemic potential. These conditions, consistent with annual spillover risk estimates of roughly 3 percent for events on the scale of COVID-19, underpin the market-implied 88.5 percent probability of no new pandemic.