Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against a new pandemic declaration in 2026 because no novel pathogen has triggered exponential global spread meeting WHO criteria, with mpox remaining a moderate-risk graded emergency under sustained surveillance and COVID-19 circulating endemically at low severity due to population immunity and updated vaccines. Regional Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo show elevated local case fatality but limited international transmission, while measles clusters stay contained through vaccination campaigns. Strengthened International Health Regulations and ongoing Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing negotiations further support early detection. A shift could occur if a highly transmissible variant emerges or an existing outbreak expands rapidly across borders before containment measures take hold.