Current low global transmission risks and contained outbreaks support the 82.5% market-implied probability for no new pandemic before 2028. Official CDC assessments rate the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda as low risk to broader populations due to limited person-to-person spread outside affected regions, while a separate Andes hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship remained geographically restricted. WHO and CDC surveillance data show no novel pathogens achieving sustained international community transmission, consistent with historical intervals between pandemics. Enhanced post-COVID monitoring networks and ongoing Pandemic Agreement negotiations further reduce near-term emergence likelihood, though model uncertainties around zoonotic spillover and respiratory viruses like influenza leave room for rapid shifts if surveillance detects accelerated spread.