**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through early September 2026**, aligning with the market's 89.2% implied probability for "No." Such colossal events (Plinian to ultra-Plinian, ejecting ≥10 km³ of material with plumes exceeding 30 km) recur on average every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent confirmed examples including Pinatubo (1991) and Hunga Tonga (2022, borderline VEI 5–6). Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, USGS, and national agencies (PVMBG, PHIVOLCS, JMA) shows only moderate activity at dozens of volcanoes—such as Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, Kīlauea, and Etna—with maximum VEIs of 3–4 and no signs of rapid escalation toward caldera-forming thresholds. With roughly four months remaining and no detected precursors like widespread seismic swarms or extreme deformation at high-risk systems, trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity and absence of near-term indicators. New weekly GVP reports and alert-level updates could still shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
11% โอกาส
$145,341 ปริมาณ
$145,341 ปริมาณ
Mar 30, 2027
11% โอกาส
$145,341 ปริมาณ
$145,341 ปริมาณ
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through early September 2026**, aligning with the market's 89.2% implied probability for "No." Such colossal events (Plinian to ultra-Plinian, ejecting ≥10 km³ of material with plumes exceeding 30 km) recur on average every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent confirmed examples including Pinatubo (1991) and Hunga Tonga (2022, borderline VEI 5–6).
Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, USGS, and national agencies (PVMBG, PHIVOLCS, JMA) shows only moderate activity at dozens of volcanoes—such as Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, Kīlauea, and Etna—with maximum VEIs of 3–4 and no signs of rapid escalation toward caldera-forming thresholds. With roughly four months remaining and no detected precursors like widespread seismic swarms or extreme deformation at high-risk systems, trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity and absence of near-term indicators. New weekly GVP reports and alert-level updates could still shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$145,341วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through early September 2026**, aligning with the market's 89.2% implied probability for "No." Such colossal events (Plinian to ultra-Plinian, ejecting ≥10 km³ of material with plumes exceeding 30 km) recur on average every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent confirmed examples including Pinatubo (1991) and Hunga Tonga (2022, borderline VEI 5–6).
Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, USGS, and national agencies (PVMBG, PHIVOLCS, JMA) shows only moderate activity at dozens of volcanoes—such as Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, Kīlauea, and Etna—with maximum VEIs of 3–4 and no signs of rapid escalation toward caldera-forming thresholds. With roughly four months remaining and no detected precursors like widespread seismic swarms or extreme deformation at high-risk systems, trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity and absence of near-term indicators. New weekly GVP reports and alert-level updates could still shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$145,341วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through early September 2026**, aligning with the market's 89.2% implied probability for "No." Such colossal events (Plinian to ultra-Plinian, ejecting ≥10 km³ of material with plumes exceeding 30 km) recur on average every 50–100 years globally, with the most recent confirmed examples including Pinatubo (1991) and Hunga Tonga (2022, borderline VEI 5–6). Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, USGS, and national agencies (PVMBG, PHIVOLCS, JMA) shows only moderate activity at dozens of volcanoes—such as Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, Kīlauea, and Etna—with maximum VEIs of 3–4 and no signs of rapid escalation toward caldera-forming thresholds. With roughly four months remaining and no detected precursors like widespread seismic swarms or extreme deformation at high-risk systems, trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity and absence of near-term indicators. New weekly GVP reports and alert-level updates could still shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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