Mount Vesuvius remains in a state of quiescence with no magmatic unrest, driving the 95.3% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ eruption through 2026. INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through July 2026 report green alert status, low-energy seismicity (93 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0, max 2.2), no ground deformation from magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal activity. These parameters align with background levels observed since the 1944 eruption. While sudden increases in long-period seismicity, uplift, or gas emissions could theoretically signal magma ascent and alter the outlook before year-end, decades of monitoring data and historical recurrence intervals spanning centuries make such shifts improbable in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a state of quiescence with no magmatic unrest, driving the 95.3% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ eruption through 2026. INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through July 2026 report green alert status, low-energy seismicity (93 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0, max 2.2), no ground deformation from magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal activity. These parameters align with background levels observed since the 1944 eruption. While sudden increases in long-period seismicity, uplift, or gas emissions could theoretically signal magma ascent and alter the outlook before year-end, decades of monitoring data and historical recurrence intervals spanning centuries make such shifts improbable in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$660วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a state of quiescence with no magmatic unrest, driving the 95.3% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ eruption through 2026. INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through July 2026 report green alert status, low-energy seismicity (93 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0, max 2.2), no ground deformation from magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal activity. These parameters align with background levels observed since the 1944 eruption. While sudden increases in long-period seismicity, uplift, or gas emissions could theoretically signal magma ascent and alter the outlook before year-end, decades of monitoring data and historical recurrence intervals spanning centuries make such shifts improbable in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$660วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Mount Vesuvius remains in a state of quiescence with no magmatic unrest, driving the 95.3% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ eruption through 2026. INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano bulletins through July 2026 report green alert status, low-energy seismicity (93 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0, max 2.2), no ground deformation from magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal activity. These parameters align with background levels observed since the 1944 eruption. While sudden increases in long-period seismicity, uplift, or gas emissions could theoretically signal magma ascent and alter the outlook before year-end, decades of monitoring data and historical recurrence intervals spanning centuries make such shifts improbable in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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