**Trader sentiment for zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically one or two per year on average—and the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through mid-2026.** Ongoing or recent activity at volcanoes like Semeru, Manam, and Anak Krakatau has produced ash plumes reaching or exceeding 10–15 km, meeting the height threshold for VEI 4, yet final classification depends on tephra volume estimates (≥0.1 km³) from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. Effusive or lower-intensity events at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and various Indonesian sites remain below this scale. With roughly four months left, model consensus and monitoring by USGS and PVMBG show no imminent escalation at high-risk systems, though seismic unrest or plume revisions could shift odds. The close 0/1 split captures uncertainty over whether any 2026 events will ultimately qualify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
ภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
1 49%
0 43%
2 3.6%
3 1.3%
$1,164,115 ปริมาณ
$1,164,115 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
48%
1
49%
2
4%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 49%
0 43%
2 3.6%
3 1.3%
$1,164,115 ปริมาณ
$1,164,115 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,859 ปริมาณ
48%
1
$274,794 ปริมาณ
49%
2
$45,848 ปริมาณ
4%
3
$32,103 ปริมาณ
7%
4
$35,623 ปริมาณ
1%
5+
$275,888 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically one or two per year on average—and the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through mid-2026.** Ongoing or recent activity at volcanoes like Semeru, Manam, and Anak Krakatau has produced ash plumes reaching or exceeding 10–15 km, meeting the height threshold for VEI 4, yet final classification depends on tephra volume estimates (≥0.1 km³) from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. Effusive or lower-intensity events at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and various Indonesian sites remain below this scale. With roughly four months left, model consensus and monitoring by USGS and PVMBG show no imminent escalation at high-risk systems, though seismic unrest or plume revisions could shift odds. The close 0/1 split captures uncertainty over whether any 2026 events will ultimately qualify.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,164,115วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically one or two per year on average—and the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through mid-2026.** Ongoing or recent activity at volcanoes like Semeru, Manam, and Anak Krakatau has produced ash plumes reaching or exceeding 10–15 km, meeting the height threshold for VEI 4, yet final classification depends on tephra volume estimates (≥0.1 km³) from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. Effusive or lower-intensity events at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and various Indonesian sites remain below this scale. With roughly four months left, model consensus and monitoring by USGS and PVMBG show no imminent escalation at high-risk systems, though seismic unrest or plume revisions could shift odds. The close 0/1 split captures uncertainty over whether any 2026 events will ultimately qualify.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,164,115วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment for zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically one or two per year on average—and the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through mid-2026.** Ongoing or recent activity at volcanoes like Semeru, Manam, and Anak Krakatau has produced ash plumes reaching or exceeding 10–15 km, meeting the height threshold for VEI 4, yet final classification depends on tephra volume estimates (≥0.1 km³) from Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. Effusive or lower-intensity events at Kīlauea, Lewotobi, and various Indonesian sites remain below this scale. With roughly four months left, model consensus and monitoring by USGS and PVMBG show no imminent escalation at high-risk systems, though seismic unrest or plume revisions could shift odds. The close 0/1 split captures uncertainty over whether any 2026 events will ultimately qualify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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