**Market-implied probabilities center on 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46% chance), aligning closely with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–18 such events annually.** As of early August, confirmed events include a 7.8 in the Philippines, 7.5 in Venezuela, 7.4 in Indonesia, and 7.3 in Mexico, keeping the year-to-date pace typical rather than elevated. Seismic activity remains driven by plate-boundary tectonics, primarily along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with natural year-to-year variability and no sustained deviation from baseline rates. Model consensus and monitoring data from USGS show no anomalous clustering or acceleration that would push totals significantly higher or lower. With five months remaining, traders are weighting the historical distribution most heavily while accounting for possible late-year fluctuations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วแผ่นดินไหว 7.0 หรือสูงกว่าในปี 2026 มีกี่ครั้ง?
แผ่นดินไหว 7.0 หรือสูงกว่าในปี 2026 มีกี่ครั้ง?
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.0%
$1,365,350 ปริมาณ
$1,365,350 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
18%
14–16
45%
17–19
30%
20+
9%
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.0%
$1,365,350 ปริมาณ
$1,365,350 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
8–10
$142,617 ปริมาณ
1%
11–13
$414,065 ปริมาณ
18%
14–16
$187,320 ปริมาณ
45%
17–19
$211,709 ปริมาณ
30%
20+
$65,606 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Market-implied probabilities center on 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46% chance), aligning closely with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–18 such events annually.**
As of early August, confirmed events include a 7.8 in the Philippines, 7.5 in Venezuela, 7.4 in Indonesia, and 7.3 in Mexico, keeping the year-to-date pace typical rather than elevated. Seismic activity remains driven by plate-boundary tectonics, primarily along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with natural year-to-year variability and no sustained deviation from baseline rates. Model consensus and monitoring data from USGS show no anomalous clustering or acceleration that would push totals significantly higher or lower. With five months remaining, traders are weighting the historical distribution most heavily while accounting for possible late-year fluctuations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,365,350วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Market-implied probabilities center on 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46% chance), aligning closely with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–18 such events annually.**
As of early August, confirmed events include a 7.8 in the Philippines, 7.5 in Venezuela, 7.4 in Indonesia, and 7.3 in Mexico, keeping the year-to-date pace typical rather than elevated. Seismic activity remains driven by plate-boundary tectonics, primarily along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with natural year-to-year variability and no sustained deviation from baseline rates. Model consensus and monitoring data from USGS show no anomalous clustering or acceleration that would push totals significantly higher or lower. With five months remaining, traders are weighting the historical distribution most heavily while accounting for possible late-year fluctuations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,365,350วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Market-implied probabilities center on 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46% chance), aligning closely with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–18 such events annually.** As of early August, confirmed events include a 7.8 in the Philippines, 7.5 in Venezuela, 7.4 in Indonesia, and 7.3 in Mexico, keeping the year-to-date pace typical rather than elevated. Seismic activity remains driven by plate-boundary tectonics, primarily along the Pacific Ring of Fire, with natural year-to-year variability and no sustained deviation from baseline rates. Model consensus and monitoring data from USGS show no anomalous clustering or acceleration that would push totals significantly higher or lower. With five months remaining, traders are weighting the historical distribution most heavily while accounting for possible late-year fluctuations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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