Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and other models show mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers over Warsaw on August 19, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This synoptic pattern, featuring a westerly flow and modest instability, positions maximum temperatures near 20–22°C as the most probable range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 42% for 21°C and roughly 47% combined for 20–22°C. Historical August averages hover near 23°C, but the current setup deviates from clearer, warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Model spread remains modest, with warmer solutions still capped below 23°C; updated runs and surface observations through August 18 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 19?
21°C 44%
22°C 26%
20°C 23%
23°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
23%
21°C
44%
22°C
26%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
1%
21°C 44%
22°C 26%
20°C 23%
23°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 19, 2026
14°C or below
$191 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$176 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$56 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$398 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$347 ปริมาณ
3%
19°C
$412 ปริมาณ
5%
20°C
$162 ปริมาณ
23%
21°C
$286 ปริมาณ
44%
22°C
$1,212 ปริมาณ
26%
23°C
$30 ปริมาณ
6%
24°C or higher
$114 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and other models show mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers over Warsaw on August 19, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This synoptic pattern, featuring a westerly flow and modest instability, positions maximum temperatures near 20–22°C as the most probable range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 42% for 21°C and roughly 47% combined for 20–22°C. Historical August averages hover near 23°C, but the current setup deviates from clearer, warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Model spread remains modest, with warmer solutions still capped below 23°C; updated runs and surface observations through August 18 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,383วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and other models show mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers over Warsaw on August 19, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This synoptic pattern, featuring a westerly flow and modest instability, positions maximum temperatures near 20–22°C as the most probable range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 42% for 21°C and roughly 47% combined for 20–22°C. Historical August averages hover near 23°C, but the current setup deviates from clearer, warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Model spread remains modest, with warmer solutions still capped below 23°C; updated runs and surface observations through August 18 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,383วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and other models show mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers over Warsaw on August 19, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This synoptic pattern, featuring a westerly flow and modest instability, positions maximum temperatures near 20–22°C as the most probable range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 42% for 21°C and roughly 47% combined for 20–22°C. Historical August averages hover near 23°C, but the current setup deviates from clearer, warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Model spread remains modest, with warmer solutions still capped below 23°C; updated runs and surface observations through August 18 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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