Severe drought and record-low flows along the Danube, driven by prolonged summer heat and minimal upstream rainfall, have kept water levels at historic lows in Hungary, Romania, and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026. These conditions have curtailed shipping, tourism, and cooling water for nuclear facilities, with Budapest readings dropping below prior benchmarks. Trader consensus clusters on September and October windows because seasonal cooling and catchment-area precipitation typically begin lifting flows in those months, while earlier recovery remains unlikely without an abrupt shift in patterns. The tight spread among the three leading intervals reflects high uncertainty in medium-range weather models and the absence of confirmed heavy rain events. Fresh forecasts showing sustained dry conditions or early autumn downpours in the Alps and tributaries could quickly widen gaps between the September and October outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 48%
September 1 - 14, 2026 34%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
Before September 1, 2026 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
8%
September 1 - 14, 2026
34%
September 15 - 30, 2026
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
36%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
6%
October 1 - 31, 2026 48%
September 1 - 14, 2026 34%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
Before September 1, 2026 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
$516 ปริมาณ
8%
September 1 - 14, 2026
$978 ปริมาณ
34%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$1,175 ปริมาณ
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$591 ปริมาณ
36%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$364 ปริมาณ
6%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Severe drought and record-low flows along the Danube, driven by prolonged summer heat and minimal upstream rainfall, have kept water levels at historic lows in Hungary, Romania, and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026. These conditions have curtailed shipping, tourism, and cooling water for nuclear facilities, with Budapest readings dropping below prior benchmarks. Trader consensus clusters on September and October windows because seasonal cooling and catchment-area precipitation typically begin lifting flows in those months, while earlier recovery remains unlikely without an abrupt shift in patterns. The tight spread among the three leading intervals reflects high uncertainty in medium-range weather models and the absence of confirmed heavy rain events. Fresh forecasts showing sustained dry conditions or early autumn downpours in the Alps and tributaries could quickly widen gaps between the September and October outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,623วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Severe drought and record-low flows along the Danube, driven by prolonged summer heat and minimal upstream rainfall, have kept water levels at historic lows in Hungary, Romania, and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026. These conditions have curtailed shipping, tourism, and cooling water for nuclear facilities, with Budapest readings dropping below prior benchmarks. Trader consensus clusters on September and October windows because seasonal cooling and catchment-area precipitation typically begin lifting flows in those months, while earlier recovery remains unlikely without an abrupt shift in patterns. The tight spread among the three leading intervals reflects high uncertainty in medium-range weather models and the absence of confirmed heavy rain events. Fresh forecasts showing sustained dry conditions or early autumn downpours in the Alps and tributaries could quickly widen gaps between the September and October outcomes.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,623วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Severe drought and record-low flows along the Danube, driven by prolonged summer heat and minimal upstream rainfall, have kept water levels at historic lows in Hungary, Romania, and neighboring stretches as of early August 2026. These conditions have curtailed shipping, tourism, and cooling water for nuclear facilities, with Budapest readings dropping below prior benchmarks. Trader consensus clusters on September and October windows because seasonal cooling and catchment-area precipitation typically begin lifting flows in those months, while earlier recovery remains unlikely without an abrupt shift in patterns. The tight spread among the three leading intervals reflects high uncertainty in medium-range weather models and the absence of confirmed heavy rain events. Fresh forecasts showing sustained dry conditions or early autumn downpours in the Alps and tributaries could quickly widen gaps between the September and October outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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