The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the extreme physical limits on seismic events and the complete absence of conditions capable of producing one. The moment magnitude scale is logarithmic, with each full point representing roughly 32 times more energy release; the historical maximum remains 9.5 (1960 Chile), and no known subduction zone or fault system shows strain accumulation or rupture characteristics that could reach 10.0 on the required timescale. USGS global seismic monitoring and paleoseismic records confirm such events lie far outside observed recurrence intervals. While model uncertainties exist and unexpected deep-crustal dynamics could theoretically alter assessments, no credible near-term data releases or monitoring updates would shift the consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
1% โอกาส
$807,553 ปริมาณ
$807,553 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
1% โอกาส
$807,553 ปริมาณ
$807,553 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the extreme physical limits on seismic events and the complete absence of conditions capable of producing one. The moment magnitude scale is logarithmic, with each full point representing roughly 32 times more energy release; the historical maximum remains 9.5 (1960 Chile), and no known subduction zone or fault system shows strain accumulation or rupture characteristics that could reach 10.0 on the required timescale. USGS global seismic monitoring and paleoseismic records confirm such events lie far outside observed recurrence intervals. While model uncertainties exist and unexpected deep-crustal dynamics could theoretically alter assessments, no credible near-term data releases or monitoring updates would shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$807,553วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the extreme physical limits on seismic events and the complete absence of conditions capable of producing one. The moment magnitude scale is logarithmic, with each full point representing roughly 32 times more energy release; the historical maximum remains 9.5 (1960 Chile), and no known subduction zone or fault system shows strain accumulation or rupture characteristics that could reach 10.0 on the required timescale. USGS global seismic monitoring and paleoseismic records confirm such events lie far outside observed recurrence intervals. While model uncertainties exist and unexpected deep-crustal dynamics could theoretically alter assessments, no credible near-term data releases or monitoring updates would shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$807,553วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the extreme physical limits on seismic events and the complete absence of conditions capable of producing one. The moment magnitude scale is logarithmic, with each full point representing roughly 32 times more energy release; the historical maximum remains 9.5 (1960 Chile), and no known subduction zone or fault system shows strain accumulation or rupture characteristics that could reach 10.0 on the required timescale. USGS global seismic monitoring and paleoseismic records confirm such events lie far outside observed recurrence intervals. While model uncertainties exist and unexpected deep-crustal dynamics could theoretically alter assessments, no credible near-term data releases or monitoring updates would shift the consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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