Global recurrence intervals for magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events in subduction zones average 25–50 years or longer according to USGS catalogs and paleoseismic data, with only five instrumentally recorded examples since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tōhoku event. The remaining months of 2026 represent an exceptionally narrow window, and ongoing USGS monitoring shows no accelerating strain accumulation or foreshock patterns capable of producing a full-margin rupture. Recent 2026 activity has included several magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold. Trader consensus at roughly 94% “No” therefore reflects the low baseline probability, though an unexpected Cascadia or Aleutian full-margin failure before year-end remains a low-probability tail risk if monitoring data shift rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% โอกาส
$273,867 ปริมาณ
$273,867 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
6% โอกาส
$273,867 ปริมาณ
$273,867 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global recurrence intervals for magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events in subduction zones average 25–50 years or longer according to USGS catalogs and paleoseismic data, with only five instrumentally recorded examples since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tōhoku event. The remaining months of 2026 represent an exceptionally narrow window, and ongoing USGS monitoring shows no accelerating strain accumulation or foreshock patterns capable of producing a full-margin rupture. Recent 2026 activity has included several magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold. Trader consensus at roughly 94% “No” therefore reflects the low baseline probability, though an unexpected Cascadia or Aleutian full-margin failure before year-end remains a low-probability tail risk if monitoring data shift rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$273,867วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global recurrence intervals for magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events in subduction zones average 25–50 years or longer according to USGS catalogs and paleoseismic data, with only five instrumentally recorded examples since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tōhoku event. The remaining months of 2026 represent an exceptionally narrow window, and ongoing USGS monitoring shows no accelerating strain accumulation or foreshock patterns capable of producing a full-margin rupture. Recent 2026 activity has included several magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold. Trader consensus at roughly 94% “No” therefore reflects the low baseline probability, though an unexpected Cascadia or Aleutian full-margin failure before year-end remains a low-probability tail risk if monitoring data shift rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$273,867วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global recurrence intervals for magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events in subduction zones average 25–50 years or longer according to USGS catalogs and paleoseismic data, with only five instrumentally recorded examples since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tōhoku event. The remaining months of 2026 represent an exceptionally narrow window, and ongoing USGS monitoring shows no accelerating strain accumulation or foreshock patterns capable of producing a full-margin rupture. Recent 2026 activity has included several magnitude 7–7.8 events but nothing approaching the threshold. Trader consensus at roughly 94% “No” therefore reflects the low baseline probability, though an unexpected Cascadia or Aleutian full-margin failure before year-end remains a low-probability tail risk if monitoring data shift rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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