Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 4 points to a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome at 45% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow, a moderate marine layer, and typical early-September coastal cooling—driven by the cold California Current and evening radiational cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies—support this range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 56°F. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with only modest potential for slightly cooler readings near 55°F if the marine layer thickens overnight, reflected in the 54-55°F and 56-57°F buckets. No significant warm-air advection or offshore wind event is expected to push values into the 60s or drop them below 50°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the final data before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
48-49°F 47%
50-51°F 47%
58-59°F 45%
47°F or below 42%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
47°F or below
42%
48-49°F
47%
50-51°F
47%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
29%
56-57°F
22%
58-59°F
45%
60-61°F
36%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
42%
66°F or higher
42%
48-49°F 47%
50-51°F 47%
58-59°F 45%
47°F or below 42%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
47°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
48-49°F
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
50-51°F
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
52-53°F
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
54-55°F
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
56-57°F
$23 ปริมาณ
22%
58-59°F
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
60-61°F
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
62-63°F
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
64-65°F
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
66°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 4 points to a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome at 45% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow, a moderate marine layer, and typical early-September coastal cooling—driven by the cold California Current and evening radiational cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies—support this range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 56°F. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with only modest potential for slightly cooler readings near 55°F if the marine layer thickens overnight, reflected in the 54-55°F and 56-57°F buckets. No significant warm-air advection or offshore wind event is expected to push values into the 60s or drop them below 50°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the final data before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 4 points to a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome at 45% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow, a moderate marine layer, and typical early-September coastal cooling—driven by the cold California Current and evening radiational cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies—support this range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 56°F. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with only modest potential for slightly cooler readings near 55°F if the marine layer thickens overnight, reflected in the 54-55°F and 56-57°F buckets. No significant warm-air advection or offshore wind event is expected to push values into the 60s or drop them below 50°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the final data before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 4 points to a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F, aligning with the market’s leading 58-59°F outcome at 45% implied probability. Persistent onshore flow, a moderate marine layer, and typical early-September coastal cooling—driven by the cold California Current and evening radiational cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies—support this range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 56°F. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread, with only modest potential for slightly cooler readings near 55°F if the marine layer thickens overnight, reflected in the 54-55°F and 56-57°F buckets. No significant warm-air advection or offshore wind event is expected to push values into the 60s or drop them below 50°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will provide the final data before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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