The absence of any events matching the market's specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime change, China invading Taiwan, Russia entering a NATO country, or major leadership shifts involving Trump or Xi—has anchored the "Yes" shares near 71.5%. With roughly seven months left in 2026, traders appear to view the probability of these discrete, high-threshold developments occurring before year-end as limited, based on the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy, ongoing diplomatic postures, and the lack of escalatory military actions or constitutional crises in recent weeks. This positioning reflects the crowd's assessment that routine political and geopolitical activity will not meet the defined thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ใช่
$592,902 ปริมาณ
$592,902 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$592,902 ปริมาณ
$592,902 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe absence of any events matching the market's specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime change, China invading Taiwan, Russia entering a NATO country, or major leadership shifts involving Trump or Xi—has anchored the "Yes" shares near 71.5%. With roughly seven months left in 2026, traders appear to view the probability of these discrete, high-threshold developments occurring before year-end as limited, based on the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy, ongoing diplomatic postures, and the lack of escalatory military actions or constitutional crises in recent weeks. This positioning reflects the crowd's assessment that routine political and geopolitical activity will not meet the defined thresholds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$592,902วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe absence of any events matching the market's specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime change, China invading Taiwan, Russia entering a NATO country, or major leadership shifts involving Trump or Xi—has anchored the "Yes" shares near 71.5%. With roughly seven months left in 2026, traders appear to view the probability of these discrete, high-threshold developments occurring before year-end as limited, based on the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy, ongoing diplomatic postures, and the lack of escalatory military actions or constitutional crises in recent weeks. This positioning reflects the crowd's assessment that routine political and geopolitical activity will not meet the defined thresholds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$592,902วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any events matching the market's specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime change, China invading Taiwan, Russia entering a NATO country, or major leadership shifts involving Trump or Xi—has anchored the "Yes" shares near 71.5%. With roughly seven months left in 2026, traders appear to view the probability of these discrete, high-threshold developments occurring before year-end as limited, based on the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy, ongoing diplomatic postures, and the lack of escalatory military actions or constitutional crises in recent weeks. This positioning reflects the crowd's assessment that routine political and geopolitical activity will not meet the defined thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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