Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว12+ 67%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
0-2
10%
3-5
16%
6-8
16%
9-11
22%
12+
67%
12+ 67%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
0-2
$219 ปริมาณ
10%
3-5
$633 ปริมาณ
16%
6-8
$37 ปริมาณ
16%
9-11
$50 ปริมาณ
22%
12+
$341 ปริมาณ
67%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,281วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,281วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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