The U.S. military raid capturing Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 achieved key U.S. objectives through targeted special operations without establishing territorial control, leading Polymarket to resolve related contracts against an "invasion." Subsequent developments center on economic leverage, including the late-August oil production stake agreement granting U.S. interests access to roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s reserves via a private partnership, alongside ongoing judicial and political talks between the interim Rodríguez government and opposition factions. Recent naval strikes on suspected drug vessels and humanitarian coordination after the June earthquakes have reinforced U.S. pressure and influence without broader ground commitments. Trader sentiment reflects low near-term probability of a conventional invasion, as Washington pursues compliance through sanctions carve-outs, commercial deals, and conditional threats of further action rather than large-scale military occupation. Scheduled implementation of energy agreements and any shifts in interim government cooperation remain key variables through year-end.