Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Austin on July 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 15?
80-81°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$71,356 Vol.
$71,356 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
75°F or below
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$71,356 Vol.
$71,356 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
75°F or below
$3,450 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$27,314 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$5,026 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$7,952 Vol.
Yes
82-83°F
$5,684 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$5,368 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$3,881 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$5,160 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$3,296 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$2,320 Vol.
No
94°F or higher
$1,905 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$71,356Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71,356Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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