The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established April 8, 2026, via Pakistan mediation and later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending a comprehensive proposal, remains in place amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and limited direct talks. Recent incidents include U.S.-Iran naval exchanges on May 7, Iranian missile and drone strikes reported in the UAE on May 4, and intermittent violations tied to Lebanon operations, prompting Trump to describe the truce as on "life support" by mid-May. Diplomatic signals have included paused U.S. military plans on May 19 due to Gulf allies' requests for continued negotiations, alongside stalled proposals and mutual accusations of non-compliance. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these fragile diplomatic efforts and economic pressures from the blockade will sustain the pause or yield to renewed escalation before a final agreement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBAGO
$1,489,700 Vol.
May 20
100%
May 21
98%
May 22
95%
May 24
86%
May 27
77%
May 31
70%
June 7
63%
June 15
56%
June 30
49%
July 31
40%
December 31
35%
$1,489,700 Vol.
May 20
$294,896 Vol.
100%
May 21
$487,284 Vol.
98%
May 22
$236,251 Vol.
95%
May 24
$212,317 Vol.
86%
May 27
$53,828 Vol.
77%
May 31
$88,532 Vol.
70%
June 7
$21,696 Vol.
63%
June 15
$18,345 Vol.
56%
June 30
$27,769 Vol.
49%
July 31
$12,236 Vol.
40%
December 31
$39,331 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established April 8, 2026, via Pakistan mediation and later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending a comprehensive proposal, remains in place amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and limited direct talks. Recent incidents include U.S.-Iran naval exchanges on May 7, Iranian missile and drone strikes reported in the UAE on May 4, and intermittent violations tied to Lebanon operations, prompting Trump to describe the truce as on "life support" by mid-May. Diplomatic signals have included paused U.S. military plans on May 19 due to Gulf allies' requests for continued negotiations, alongside stalled proposals and mutual accusations of non-compliance. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these fragile diplomatic efforts and economic pressures from the blockade will sustain the pause or yield to renewed escalation before a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,489,700Binuksan ang Market
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established April 8, 2026, via Pakistan mediation and later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending a comprehensive proposal, remains in place amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and limited direct talks. Recent incidents include U.S.-Iran naval exchanges on May 7, Iranian missile and drone strikes reported in the UAE on May 4, and intermittent violations tied to Lebanon operations, prompting Trump to describe the truce as on "life support" by mid-May. Diplomatic signals have included paused U.S. military plans on May 19 due to Gulf allies' requests for continued negotiations, alongside stalled proposals and mutual accusations of non-compliance. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these fragile diplomatic efforts and economic pressures from the blockade will sustain the pause or yield to renewed escalation before a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,489,700Binuksan ang Market
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, established April 8, 2026, via Pakistan mediation and later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending a comprehensive proposal, remains in place amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and limited direct talks. Recent incidents include U.S.-Iran naval exchanges on May 7, Iranian missile and drone strikes reported in the UAE on May 4, and intermittent violations tied to Lebanon operations, prompting Trump to describe the truce as on "life support" by mid-May. Diplomatic signals have included paused U.S. military plans on May 19 due to Gulf allies' requests for continued negotiations, alongside stalled proposals and mutual accusations of non-compliance. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these fragile diplomatic efforts and economic pressures from the blockade will sustain the pause or yield to renewed escalation before a final agreement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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