**Trader sentiment centers on 58-59°F as the most likely low (46.5% implied probability), followed by 56-57°F (20.5%), reflecting official forecasts and model consensus for a minimum in the upper 50s on August 24, 2026.** San Francisco’s coastal location and marine layer drive this outcome. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific, reinforced by the cold California Current, maintains overnight temperatures near the long-term August average low of 56°F. Current observations and GFS-based guidance show early-morning readings holding in the upper 50s to near 59°F under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate westerly winds, with no strong offshore flow or clear-sky radiative cooling to push values lower. Recent August conditions have featured similar stable marine influence, producing daily lows of 56–58°F without significant deviation. The market’s concentration in the 54–59°F bins aligns with this evidence-based range; probabilities drop sharply outside it because historical records and current model runs show little support for extremes on this date. Updated National Weather Service and private forecasts continue to indicate an upper-50s minimum, keeping trader focus on these leading bins as resolution approaches.