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icon for Natural Disaster in 2026?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

icon for Natural Disaster in 2026?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

21% tsansa
Polymarket

$246,739 Vol.

21% tsansa
Polymarket

$246,739 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf **No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,739
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf **No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%.** None of the four resolution triggers—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike—has been recorded so far this year. Historical baselines show these thresholds are infrequent: U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than one per decade, VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 10–20 years globally, and 8.5+ earthquakes are even rarer. With only three-plus months remaining, official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program continues to show no imminent threats meeting the criteria, reinforcing trader consensus that the combined annual probability remains well below 50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,739
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Natural Disaster in 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 21% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 21¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 21% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Natural Disaster in 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $246.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Dec 31, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Natural Disaster in 2026?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Natural Disaster in 2026?" ay 21% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 21% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Natural Disaster in 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.