Trader consensus favoring “No” at 88% reflects the low historical frequency of qualifying extremes—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, M8.5+ earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. NOAA and USGS records show such events occur far less than once per year on average, and current seismic, volcanic, and tropical cyclone monitoring indicates no elevated activity approaching these thresholds through the remaining five months. While routine disasters such as floods and wildfires continue, they fall outside resolution criteria, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with climatological baselines and the absence of triggering signals in official forecasts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$230,547 Vol.
$230,547 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$230,547 Vol.
$230,547 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 88% reflects the low historical frequency of qualifying extremes—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, M8.5+ earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. NOAA and USGS records show such events occur far less than once per year on average, and current seismic, volcanic, and tropical cyclone monitoring indicates no elevated activity approaching these thresholds through the remaining five months. While routine disasters such as floods and wildfires continue, they fall outside resolution criteria, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with climatological baselines and the absence of triggering signals in official forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$230,547Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 88% reflects the low historical frequency of qualifying extremes—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, M8.5+ earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. NOAA and USGS records show such events occur far less than once per year on average, and current seismic, volcanic, and tropical cyclone monitoring indicates no elevated activity approaching these thresholds through the remaining five months. While routine disasters such as floods and wildfires continue, they fall outside resolution criteria, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with climatological baselines and the absence of triggering signals in official forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$230,547Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring “No” at 88% reflects the low historical frequency of qualifying extremes—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions, M8.5+ earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. NOAA and USGS records show such events occur far less than once per year on average, and current seismic, volcanic, and tropical cyclone monitoring indicates no elevated activity approaching these thresholds through the remaining five months. While routine disasters such as floods and wildfires continue, they fall outside resolution criteria, leaving the market-implied odds aligned with climatological baselines and the absence of triggering signals in official forecasts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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